Higher education textbooks and reference works have been made freely available to students online through their universities, while coronavirus research has been placed into a free online collection, with new articles fast-tracked through the peer review and publishing process to join them.

Teachers, pupils and parents are also being given free online access to the Press’s schoolbooks, along with worksheets and instructional videos. Blogs are being constantly updated with new content to support those adjusting to teaching and learning remotely.

Peter Phillips, CUP’s Chief Executive, said: “The pandemic is disrupting normal life almost everywhere. It’s vital that we do what we can to minimise its effects on learning and research, but also to get world-class research on this virus into the hands of anyone who needs it.”

Action has been taken across all three of the Press’s publishing groups.

Academic publishing has made more than 700 textbooks in HTML format available online to students through their university libraries. In addition, existing customers are being offered free access to key reference works on request to help them overcome the disruption caused by the global response to the pandemic.

At the same time, there is free access to a growing collection of COVID-19 and coronavirus-related research on Cambridge Core – the online home of the Press’s academic books and journals. New research is being added all the time, with editorial processes adapted to ensure publication within 24 hours of receipt of the accepted manuscript, so the most-up-to-date information is shared as rapidly as possible. Press-published ‘Gold’ Open Access journals are also waiving the normal Article Processing Charges for COVID-19 or coronavirus-related research up until June 2020, meaning there is no cost to the authors or their institutions.

The Press has also joined more than 30 leading publishers in committing to making all of its COVID-19 and coronavirus-related publications, and the available data supporting them, immediately accessible in PubMed Central (PMC) and other public repositories. More information here.

ELT publishing group has launched a global campaign – Supporting Every Teacher– working with colleagues in Cambridge Assessment English to deliver free, online content to support teachers and learners. Begun in March, the campaign has already reached two million people, with resources on offer including free digital access to the popular Cambridge English Exam Boosters series, which support those preparing for English language examinations. Teachers can also find daily content on the Press’s English Language Teaching blog, ‘World of Better Learning’, to ease the transition to home learning.

Education group are also providing support for primary and secondary teachers around the world. There is free access to more than 100 secondary school textbooks, specially-designed worksheet bundles for pupils aged five to 11 and Penpals handwriting videos for those aged three to six. Secondary school resources can be accessed through the Press’s digital education platform Cambridge Elevate. This includes material covering Cambridge IGCSE, Cambridge International AS & A Level as well as several UK GCSE and A Level texts. The Press is also rolling out free access to its interactive maths resources GCSE Mathematics Online in the UK and Cambridge Online Mathematics for Lower Secondary Checkpoint, IGCSE and A Level Mathematics, globally.

Further support is available from colleagues already in touch with schools around the world to provide assistance when moving to or using online and blended learning products.

More info about the Press’s response to COVID-19 here.

A new analysis of 1.4 billion anonymised credit and debit card transactions during the first three months of 2020 shows that spending in Spain post-lockdown was an average of 49% lower than the same date the previous year.

Economists from the universities of Cambridge, Edinburgh and Imperial College in the UK worked with the Spanish bank BBVA, one of the largest financial institutions in the world, to study the “real time evolution” of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“This is an unprecedented dataset of millions of everyday transactions, revealing the underlying costs of the coronavirus crisis,” said study co-author Vasco Carvalho, Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Cambridge, and director of its INET Institute.

“We can see in high resolution the impact of extreme mobility restrictions on a major western economy. We find an abrupt and persistent decline in spending during lockdown, amounting to about half of what we might normally expect.”

The researchers found evidence of a major spending increase in the few days just before Spain’s lockdown began on the 14 March 2020, when daily expenditure growth shot up by 20 percentage points above average for the year.

Once lockdown began, daily spending halved on average. The researchers say that, while bank transaction data is “substantially more volatile” than overall consumption by households in Spain, they are closely linked.

As such, a “back-of-the-envelope calculation” for consumption movement during the pandemic suggests growth of just over 4% prior to lockdown dropped sharply to a -13% decline in average household consumption – a key indicator of GDP – once lockdown restrictions were in place.

“While considerable uncertainty surrounds these calculations, is seems hard to construct a scenario where average consumption of Spanish households is not declining somewhere between minus 10% and minus 15% during the period of lockdown,” said Carvalho.

The dataset charts the dramatic shift to online purchasing once lockdown was enforced. While both offline and online spending fell overall, the decline at physical points of sale was massive. As such, online shopping increased its market share by about 50%.

The detail in the anonymised transaction data allowed the researchers to analyse the best and worst performing types of goods and outlets as people adapted to their new lockdown lives.

While outlets unable to conduct business were obviously the worst hit – from bars to fashion retailers – the study shows that small local food shops and convenience stores benefited the most, increasing their market share more than even the “Hipermercados”, or superstores.

Other categories of spending that have seen market share grow during Spanish lockdown include mobile phone credit, as telecommunications become even more vital to social lives, as well as pharmacies and insurance.

“Spending on commodities related to basic necessities, such as foodstuffs and the pharmacy, more than doubled during the lockdown period, while trade in fashion or personal services declined heavily,” said Carvalho. “Restrictions to movement mean proximity to the customer is now of key importance.”

The study found that – all together – the top 10 best performing spending categories during lockdown went from an average of 10% market share in the first two months of 2020 to 50% by late March.

The economists also used anonymised geo-tagging of the transactions to study the economic effects of coronavirus on the different regions of Spain, as well as among the neighborhoods of one of its major cities.  

Unlike the country’s autonomous regions, which all followed a similar pattern, economic activity evolved very differently within Madrid’s postcodes during the crisis. “Those neighborhoods where there were more sick and infected people saw substantial declines in spending,” said Carvalho.

“Within a big city, inequality in disease burden appears to be linked to inequality in economic burden.”

Study co-author Professor Sevi Rodriguez Mora, of the University of Edinburgh’s School of Economics, said: “Over the coming weeks governments will grapple with how to relax social distancing measures, but have few means of understanding the impact of different policies on economic activity.

“Transaction data can provide immediate feedback on how spending patterns across space and sectors react to restriction measures, but also their relaxation.”

“Given that this seems to be happening in Spain before the rest of Europe and America, whatever happens in Spain will show us what we should expect everywhere else."

Álvaro Ortiz, Head of Big Data at BBVA Research, added: “Tracking these kind of events in real time and high definition provides an important strategic advantage for policy makers, as they can react more quickly to limit the economic damage.” 

The new research is published as a Cambridge-INET working paper on the Institute’s dedicated COVID-19 research page here: http://covid.econ.cam.ac.uk/

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The study identified 275 ways to reduce transmission of the coronavirus. Medical possibilities were not considered. It does not offer recommendations: a shortlist of the most appropriate options for specific regions and contexts should be considered in the context of their likely effectiveness, cost, practicality and fairness.

“There’s increasing pressure to re-open the economy and get people back to work and out of isolation. But if we return to operating as we did before the pandemic, there will be a second wave of the virus. All activities will need to be considered individually, and phased back in carefully, depending on the risk they pose to spreading the virus,” said Professor William Sutherland in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology, who led the study.

Strict lockdown measures are proving to be effective in controlling the spread of coronavirus in many countries, but are putting a major strain on the population’s mental and physical health, and on the economy. Mass vaccination is not likely before the second half of 2021.

Measures such as physical distancing, enhancing personal hygiene and reducing contamination are likely to remain central elements of all control strategies for some time. The study, which has not been peer reviewed, lists the range of practical options available to achieve these measures, including:

• Café owners could open outdoor areas only at first, and wipe down tables - spaced well apart - after each customer.
• Access to public parks could be restricted to different age groups at different times of day, with gates left open so they don’t need to be touched, and users asked to walk on the right side of the pavement or clockwise around large open spaces.
• Petrol stations could become fully contactless, with attendants serving customers who pay from inside their car.
• Patients with doctors’ appointments could be asked to wait in their car outside the surgery until called in.
• School classes could be split into smaller groups with dedicated teachers, who only go into school one week in every three.

“It’s basically about how to stop people hanging around together, and phasing in activities starting with the ones that are the safest. Making this happen will be up to the people responsible for every element of society,” says Sutherland. 

Identifying, assessing and applying a wide range of options could enable some of the stricter lockdown conditions to be lifted earlier, and make the transition period shorter, say the researchers. The ultimate aim of a successful transition is to achieve ‘Resilient Normality’ - a new way of existing in the world that makes us less susceptible to future pandemics. 

Information was gathered by a method called Solution Scanning, which uses a wide range of sources to identify a range of options for a given problem. Sources included experts in a variety of fields, crowdsourcing on social media, and published research. 

“In starting a process of decision-making or guidance-production, it’s sensible to be aware of the range of possible options. Policy makers and practitioners must decide which strategies are appropriate to phase in at different stages of the transition from lockdown,” said Sutherland. 

The list of potential options is available online at https://covid-19.biorisc.com

This work was a collaboration between BioRISC (the Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine’s College, Cambridge), Conservation Evidence in the Department of Zoology, and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.  It was funded by The David and Claudia Harding Foundation, Arcadia and MAVA.

Reference (preprint)
Sutherland, W.J. et al: ‘Informing management of lockdowns and a phased return to normality: a Solution Scan of non-pharmaceutical options to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.’ 2020. DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/CA5RH
 

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A multi-institutional collaboration, co-led by scientists at the University of Cambridge and Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (OIST), has identified the source of efficiency-limiting defects in potential materials for next-generation solar cells and LEDs.

In the last decade, perovskites – a diverse range of materials with a specific crystal structure – have emerged as promising alternatives to silicon solar cells, as they are cheaper and greener to manufacture, while achieving a comparable level of efficiency. 

The centres, which include the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Cancer Centre, form an alliance known as Cancer Core Europe (CCE), and together represent around 60,000 newly diagnosed cancer patients each year and conduct more than 1,500 clinical trials.

In a Perspective published in Nature Medicine, CCE researchers describe how their centres have been forced by the current pandemic to drastically revise and reorganise their patient care and scientific research, while maintaining the same high quality of care.

The specialist centres not only want to prevent the spread of the virus in general, but also to protect patients with cancer whose disease and treatment make them especially vulnerable to complications if infected.

“COVID-19 has created a unique challenge: how to adjust cancer management to minimise the disruption caused to cancer care by the pandemic,” said Professor Carlos Caldas, co-lead author of the article, member of the senior management team of the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Centre, and Group Leader at the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Institute.

“Our medical staff across all disciplines have been truly amazing at very quickly producing COVID-19-adjusted treatment guidelines.”

The researchers have identified several factors that medical institutions need to consider to ensure continuity in cancer care as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds. These include:

• Clinical activities
  Given the high transmissibility rate of SARS-Cov2, it is the responsibility of all health care professionals to make sure patients are not exposed to COVID-19. For CCE centres, this means that face-to-face consultations are now, whenever possible, taking place via web consulting or by telephone calls, and non-urgent appointments are postponed.
   
• Adaptation of standard-of-care treatment regimens
  Across all centres, standard-of-care treatment regimens have been adapted to minimize the number of hospital visits and hospitalizations, and to prevent complications of COVID-19 caused by anticancer treatments.
   
• Patient information and psychosocial care
  Addressing patients’ concerns relating to their treatment and how it may be affected by COVID-19 poses a challenge to CCE centres and has required urgent attention.
   
• Support of qualified personnel
  In order to ensure the continuity of cancer care, the presence of sufficient qualified personnel to treat cancer patients is essential. This involves the whole chain of hospital caregivers, from the operating theatre, to the ward, day clinic, and intensive care unit (ICU). Every CCE has faced a similar problem: the absence of a rapid diagnostic system for COVID-19 for caregivers. This frequently leads to unnecessary self-isolation of health professionals, further reducing the health workforce in a time when demand is peaking.
   
• Capacity of cancer care facilities
  In many hospitals, the COVID-19 pandemic is a major stress test for the capacity of the various treatment or support units: radiation, medical oncology, imaging, surgery and ICUs. With increasing severity of the pandemic, health care systems will become overwhelmed and prioritization will be necessary. To prepare for this, CCE centres have established decision rules to categorize and prioritize patients for anticancer therapies or surgery.
   
• Research activities​
  CCE centres have large research facilities and together employ thousands of preclinical scientists. One of the first measures taken was to downscale these preclinical research activities to a minimum in accordance with social distancing guidelines and the ‘lockdown’ local policy. Clinically trained scientists and research fellows are frequently going back to clinical work to support their healthcare system.
  
  The authors acknowledge that the current crisis will have major ramifications to the progress of cancer research. However, public health measures in place to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic have to be prioritized at the moment, and the damage to the scientific enterprise will be repairable in time if safeguards and resources are put in place.

The team outline a set of practical measures that have been implemented in their respective centres and could be considered by other medical centres. These range from instructing patients where possible not to visit the hospital if they have possible symptoms of COVID-19 to reducing preclinical research activities to a bare minimum, and from informing patients about a possibly increased risk associated with anticancer therapy during the pandemic through to considering non-surgery-based treatments, such as radiation for prostate cancer.

Professor Caldas added: “We hope that our collective experiences will help guide others and will also reassure cancer patients that we are doing everything we can to avoid compromising their care.

“This COVID-19 crisis is making us rethink care, and some of the changes might in the long run have positive effects, for example minimising hospital visits and face-to-face consultations or delivering care using telemedicine.”

The Cancer Core Europe (CCE) alliance of seven leading European cancer centres was founded in 2014 to accelerate the development of innovative cancer therapies through close collaboration in translational and clinical research. Its seven member centres collectively treat approximately 350,000 patients annually.

The Cancer Research UK Cambridge Centre acknowledges funding from Cancer Research UK, the National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, and The Mark Foundation for Cancer Research. Its clinical cancer services are provided by Cambridge University Hospitals (CUH) and Royal Papworth Hospital.

Reference
Caring for patients with cancer in the COVID-19 era. Nat Med; 16 Apr 202; DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0874-8

Built primarily for use in low- and middle-income countries, the OVSI ventilator can be cheaply and quickly manufactured from readily available components. Current ventilators are expensive and difficult to fix, but an open-source design will allow users to adapt and fix the ventilators according to their needs and, by using readily available components, the machines can be built quickly across Africa in large numbers. The cost per device is estimated to be around one-tenth of currently available commercial systems.

The first ventilators will be delivered in May by a team of South Africa-based companies led by Defy, a leading southern African manufacturer of domestic appliances, and Denel, a major state-owned company.

Recent tentative estimates published by the WHO have suggested that there could be as many as 10 million cases of COVID-19 in Africa within three to six months, resulting in anywhere between 300,000 and 3.3 million deaths. There are 10 countries in Africa that do not have any ventilators at all and according to the WHO, it is estimated that there are fewer than 2,000 working ventilators across 41 countries in Africa.

“Fulfilling the unique requirements of local clinicians was key to this project,” said Professor Axel Zeitler from the Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, and OVSI team lead. “Clinicians told us the ventilator needed to cover the wide spectrum of patient ventilation requirements, and therefore work in three modes – non-invasive, mandatory or patient-triggered ventilation.

“We also know that oxygen availability varies within countries, hospitals and wards. The system must use the smallest amount of oxygen possible, but include the potential to add an oxygen concentrator.”

The Open Ventilator System Initiative is a consortium of academics, engineers, intensive care medics, innovators and industry partners across the UK and Africa. Formed in March this year, the initiative has grown quickly from an initial idea at the University of Cambridge to a team of 60 individuals contributing remotely.

The team is being advised by a panel of clinical experts including physicians in Uganda, Kenya, the DRC, South Africa and the UK. The clinical partnerships were established with the support of the Cambridge-Africa programme and Cambridge Global Health Partnerships. The ventilator was designed and built by a team based at the University of Cambridge’s Whittle Laboratory.

“Critical to this project has been the speed of technology development,” said Professor Robert Miller, Director of the Whittle Laboratory. “In recent years, the primary focus of the Whittle Laboratory has been to accelerate the process of technology development. By merging the digital and physical systems integral to the technology development process and by using Formula One-style teams, we’ve cut the amount of time this takes by a factor of 10 to 100. This capability has been key to delivering the OVSI ventilator.”

The prototype is currently being developed further into a version that can be easily mass-produced by Prodrive Ltd, a British motorsport and advanced engineering group based in Banbury, Oxfordshire. It has been thoroughly tested at the National Physical Laboratory in Teddington and passed the MHRA test specifications with flying colours. The OVSI team is currently working on securing regulatory approval for the device.

The first manufacture will be led by Defy Ltd and Denel Ltd in South Africa. Evren Albas, CEO of Defy Appliances in South Africa said, “Defy’s flexible manufacturing capabilities in Africa, together with the design and development expertise of the consortium with whom we are partnering, will allow us to fast-track ventilator production and distribution. Teams are working around the clock to start production by May.”

“While the immediate need is to save lives in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, we wanted something that will be useful to healthcare workers around the world going forward,” said Dr Lara Allen, CEO of the Centre for Global Equality and a founding member of the OVSI team. “It’s often the case that those living on less than $4 per day are excluded from the innovation process. As a result, many well-meaning innovations are not what is needed or wanted by the intended beneficiaries and end up not being used. This is disappointing for designers, a waste of humanitarian resources, and low-resource communities continue to go without the support they desperately need. This is why taking an inclusive innovation approach is vital for sustainable impact.”

Present efforts to adapt the design for low- and middle-income countries include collaboration with the long-term inclusive innovation partners at the Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, at Bahir Dar University in Ethiopia, and the Science & Technology Park at the University of Nairobi in Kenya.

OVSI will work with partner countries in Africa and elsewhere to enable local manufacturing and maintenance of the ventilator, and to design, prototype and gain regulatory approval for system upgrades.

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Because of the urgent need to share information relating to the pandemic, the researchers have published their report on MedRXiv. It has not yet been peer-reviewed. However, the preliminary data is supported by data in other countries.

While the initial symptoms of COVID-19 include fever but do not always include breathing difficulties, some patients go on to develop very serious respiratory problems. Although most patients only experience mild illness, around a quarter of hospital-admitted cases require intensive care treatment because of viral pneumonia with respiratory complications. While research suggests that COVID-19 likely stems from an overactive immune response, it is not clear why some patients are at greater risk of severe disease.

Previous studies suggested that individuals over the age of 60 or with underlying health conditions, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and cancer, are at highest risk of severe disease or death. Long-term exposure to air pollutants, including nitrogen oxides and ground level ozone from car exhaust fumes or burning fossil fuels, is a known risk factor for these health conditions. Such pollutants can also cause a persistent inflammatory response and increase the risk of infection by viruses that target the respiratory tract.

In this new study, researchers at the MRC Toxicology Unit at the University of Cambridge report an association between certain air pollutants and COVID-19 in England.

The team analysed the data on total COVID-19 cases and deaths, against the levels of three major air pollutants, collected between the years 2018 and 2019, when no COVID-19 case was reported. Their study used publicly available data from seven regions in England, where a minimum of 2,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections and 200 deaths are reported in the period from February to the 8 April 2020.

The largest number of COVID-19 deaths in England occurred across London and the Midlands, reflecting the geographical distribution of COVID-19 related cases. Previous studies have shown that the annual average of nitrogen dioxide concentrations are largest in these two regions.

When the team compared the annual average of daily nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide levels to the total number of COVID-19 cases in each region, they found these to be positively correlated – in other words, the higher the pollutant levels, the greater the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Both nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide result from a chemical reaction between nitrogen and oxygen during combustion of fossil fuels, and therefore represent a significant source of air pollution in areas with high traffic

Marco Travaglio, a PhD student at the MRC Toxicology Unit, said: “Our results provide the first evidence that SARS-CoV-2 case fatality is associated with increased nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide levels in England. London, the Midlands and the North West show the largest concentration of these air pollutants, with Southern regions displaying the lowest levels in the country, and the number of COVID-19 deaths follows a similar trend.”

The team found a negative association between ambient ground levels of ozone and the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in each region – in other words, reduced ozone levels are associated with a greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Ozone is a secondary by-product of traffic-related air pollution and is generated through sunlight-driven reactions between motor-vehicle emissions and volatile organic compounds. The lowest levels of ozone were found in highly urbanised regions, such London or the Midlands. This is likely to be due to the highly reactive nature of ozone, which results in the gas being converted to other chemicals, a phenomenon previously reported for areas of heavy traffic. The researchers suggest that the detrimental effects of low ozone concentration observed in this study could be linked to increased generation of ozone oxidation products.

Dr Miguel Martins, senior author on the study, added: “Our study adds to growing evidence from Northern Italy and the USA that high levels of air pollution are linked to deadlier cases of COVID-19. This is something we saw during the previous SARS outbreak back in 2003, where long-term exposure to air pollutants had a detrimental effect on the prognosis of SARS patients in China. This highlights the importance of reducing air pollution for the protection of human health, both in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.”

The researchers say that their findings only show a correlation and that further research is needed to confirm that air pollution makes COVID-19 worse.

The research was supported by the Medical Research Council.

Reference
Travaglio, M et al. Links between air pollution and COVID-19 in England. MedRXiv; 17 April 2020; DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.16.20067405

Women on both sides of the Atlantic are more likely to have lost their jobs or suffered a fall in earnings since the coronavirus pandemic took hold – even after accounting for differences in types of occupation, a new study suggests.

Economists from the universities of Cambridge, Oxford and Zurich have collected two waves of data in the UK and the US – the first toward the end of March and then again in the middle of April – from almost 15,000 people.

The second wave of data from mid-April suggests that – across gender, age and occupation – a total of 15% of the UK population have lost their jobs due to the economic impact of coronavirus. In the US it’s even higher: a total of 18%.

However, significantly higher rates of women and workers without a degree had experienced job loss or wage drops in the four weeks prior to questioning, compared to men and those with a university education.

In the UK, 13% of workers with a degree lost their job compared to 18% without a university education. In the US, the rate of job loss was 22% for those without a college degree compared to 15% of college-educated workers.

Women in the UK are four percentage points more likely to have lost their job than men, with 17% of women newly unemployed compared to 13% of men. The gap in the US was even wider: 21% of women compared to 14% of men. 

The researchers found that this gender gap in job loss due to coronavirus persisted even after controlling for education, occupation and regional location within each nation.

“We found that people without university degrees are more likely to be working in jobs with tasks that just can’t be done from home, making them more vulnerable to loss of employment,” said Dr Christopher Rauh, a report author from the University of Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics.  

“While we can fully explain the education gap for job loss probabilities by differences in the types of work, the same is simply not true for the gender gap we see in job loss,” he said.

Despite this, the survey study found that – on average across both countries – women are more optimistic than men about their chances of keeping their job going forward.

The researchers suggest that one potential reason for the gender gap they identify might be found in hours spent homeschooling and caring for children.

Data gathered from 9-14 April show that, on average during a typical working day, men in the UK spend under 2.5 hours on childcare, and do under two hours of homeschooling.

Women in the UK, however, spend over 3.5 hours on childcare, and do over two hours of homeschooling. In the US this childcare and homeschool gender gap is very similar, although slightly smaller.

The type of occupation makes a massive difference to whether the coronavirus economic shock had taken your job in the last month. In the US, food serving and preparation was by far the worst hit type of occupation with 40% losing their jobs, followed by transportation and then production.

In the UK, the cleaners and maintenance workers have fared worst with 33% losing their jobs, closely followed by personal care services, then food workers and construction. In both countries, those who work in computing and occupations such as architects and engineers were least affected by loss of employment.

The research also found a stark difference in job or earnings loss across the board between those on permanent contracts compared with temporary contracts, and those who can fully work from home compared with those who cannot do any. However, these inequalities were far greater in the US than the UK.

The latest research builds on the first wave of survey work conducted near the end of March, which showed that those under the age of thirty and on lower incomes were more likely to have seen wage and job losses.

Added Rauh: “In general, younger individuals across the board, as well as women and those without university education, were significantly more likely to report experiencing drops in income.”   

“The outlook on the future is bleak. Of all those still employed, 32% of people in the UK and 37% of people in the US believe they will lose their jobs in the next few months,” he said.

“Our findings highlight the need for immediate policy responses that target those most affected by the economic crisis.”

The findings by the research team composed of Abi Adams-Prassl, Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin and Christopher Rauh are published as a working paper through the University of Cambridge Institute for New Economic Thinking: https://www.inet.econ.cam.ac.uk/working-paper-pdfs/wp2018.pdf.

The Cambridge-INET Institute has now launched a dedicated website for all their coronavirus-related research: http://covid.econ.cam.ac.uk.

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The most affected group were young people aged 18-24 years, with more than four in ten (44 per cent) saying they felt lonely, according to the research study. The next most affected group were adults aged 25–34, with more than one third (35 per cent) saying they had experienced loneliness as a result of coronavirus.

One in six older people aged over 55 said they had felt lonely as a result of coronavirus, according to the study.

The survey data, from 2,221 UK adults aged 18 and over, were collected as part of Coronavirus: Mental Health and the Pandemic, a UK-wide longitudinal research project.

The survey was carried out on 2-3 April and asked people whether they had felt loneliness in the “previous two weeks”.

The UK-wide project is being led by the Mental Health Foundation in partnership with the University of Cambridge, Swansea University, University of Strathclyde and Queen’s University Belfast. The charity is seeking to track changes in the UK’s mental health in real time and target issues as they emerge.

The research also revealed a major surge in feelings of loneliness, which more than doubled across the lockdown period. When the researchers carried out the first round of the survey in March, shortly before lockdown started, 10 percent of UK adults said they had felt lonely. This figure rose to 24 per cent of all UK adults by the beginning of April.

Similarly, shortly before lockdown, 16 percent of young people aged 18-24 said they had felt loneliness because of coronavirus. This figure rose to 44 percent of young people after lockdown had been in force for almost two weeks.

Professor Tine Van Bortel from the Cambridge Institute of Public Health at the University of Cambridge said: “It might feel surprising but what our research shows is that the group most likely to be experiencing these feelings are young people. 

“It is worrying that close to half of them said they are concerned about feeling lonely, and special attention should be given to young people. However, we shouldn’t forget that loneliness is also clearly affecting very large numbers of people of all ages.”

The Coronavirus: Mental Health and the Pandemic research project is carrying out ongoing analysis of the data, which cover approximately 20 topics including the unequal impact on the mental health of at-risk groups, the key drivers of risk to mental health and how people in the UK are coping. Qualitative data is to be added via a Citizen’s Jury and regular detailed briefings will be produced.

Dr Antonis Kousoulis, Director at the Mental Health Foundation: “Our data reveal that millions of people in the UK are experiencing feelings of loneliness – which is a key risk factor for developing or worsening mental health problems.

“The concern is that the longer the pandemic goes on, the more feelings become long-term. The impact of long-term loneliness on mental health can be very hard to manage.

“While the initial priority must be to prevent loss of life, we fear that we may be living with the mental health impacts of the coronavirus situation for many years to come. This is especially true of vulnerable groups and it is critical that governments and others are mindful of this in developing policy as we go forward.”

For the latest wave of data-gathering, total sample size was 2,221 UK adults aged 18 and above. Fieldwork to gather the new data was undertaken between 2 and 3 April 2020.  The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all UK adults (aged 18 and above).

The previous wave of data-gathering was as follows: Total sample size was 2,126 UK adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 17 and 18 March 2020. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all UK adults (aged 18 and above).

Advice on tackling loneliness.

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc.  

Adapted from a press release by the Mental Health Foundation.

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Nations with high rates of coronavirus testing such as South Korea and Germany are also leading the world in commercialising COVID-19 diagnostic tests – far outstripping the domestic UK and US diagnostic industries, new research shows.

Researchers also argue that lax EU regulations for diagnostic devices could make the region a “dumping ground for poor quality tests”.

A team from the University of Cambridge’s Department of Sociology has produced what they say may be the most comprehensive global dataset of companies developing molecular diagnostic tests for COVID-19.

They found that 88% of South Korean firms working on COVID-19, and 80% of those in Germany, now have tests either on the market or ready to be rolled out. In the UK, just 54% of firms developing COVID-19 tests have a commercialised product. The US also lags behind at 67%.

China has 93 diagnostic firms working on COVID-19, the overall highest number, 90% of which have commercialised tests.

The latest analysis is available on a website set up by CancerScreen, a Cambridge research project funded by the European Research Council on the political economy of diagnostic innovation.

 “The COVID-19 testing strategies adopted by different countries are now under intense public scrutiny,” said Dr Stuart Hogarth, who leads the research.

“The UK and US have been criticised for failing to ramp up capacity compared to places such as Germany and South Korea. We can see this playing out in the global molecular diagnostics industry.”

Building on previous work, the CancerScreen team have trawled media coverage and drawn on lists of COVID-19 tests from organisations such as the Foundation for Innovative Diagnostics (FIND) and the UK National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR) Innovation Lab.

They now have 303 firms in their dataset of COVID-19 molecular diagnostics firms and their main database has increased to 830 firms.

The Asia Pacific region already dominated the global industry, with 40% of all molecular diagnostics manufacturers, compared to 29% in the US and 28% in Europe. In terms of the COVID-19 market, Asia Pacific is even more dominant, with 55% of all firms.

The region is also ahead when it comes to commercialising COVID-19 tests. In Asia Pacific 90% of firms have a test on the market, compared to 78% in Europe and 67% in the US.

“The lag is striking because it mirrors the spread of the pandemic, starting in Asia Pacific and then moving to Europe and North America,” said Hogarth. “It suggests that firms in the US and Europe could have responded more quickly when the pandemic began.”

He points out that some of the countries with an effective commercialisation response to COVID-19 diagnostic testing needs are those where there is a strong relationship between the state and manufacturing sector.

“A country like South Korea exemplifies a pattern of industrialisation in which the state directs economic development,” said Hogarth.

“Our data suggests that strong leadership by the national government plays a role in industry responsiveness, at least at the extremes of leaders and laggards,” he said.

There are also important distinctions between regions and nations when it comes to the pace and nature of regulatory approval, says Hogarth: “Although most countries have put in place fast-track emergency approval mechanisms, the European Union already had a very low barrier to market entry.”

He points out that the ‘CE-mark’ – indicating a test complies with EU regulations – is self-certified by nearly all types of diagnostic tests manufacturers: the firm simply awards itself a CE-mark.

“The lack of regulatory scrutiny makes the EU an attractive market for firms,” said Hogarth. The CancerScreen research shows there are 50% more Chinese firms with CE-marks for the EU market than actually have approval in China itself, a pattern that is almost identical in South Korea.

Some 62 firms across China, South Korea and Singapore, as well as the US, currently export CE-marked COVID-19 tests to the EU. In China, South Korea and the US, the position is reversed: most firms with approved tests are domestic.

Meanwhile, only South Korean firms have approval in South Korea, very few firms that are not Chinese have approval in China, and this trend is replicated in the US.

Last week, the New York Times reported that the UK government bought two million kits for detecting antibodies for the coronavirus from two Chinese companies, only to find them ineffective.

“If the EU is to avoid becoming a dumping ground for poor quality tests, then further action must be taken,” said Hogarth. “That is already happening at a national level, as individual member states are forced to undertake post-market evaluation to assess the quality of tests to inform their procurement decisions.”

“Over the last few days the European Commission has begun to establish a more active role as a coordinating body and I welcome that very important development.”

The CancerScreen team is now working in collaboration with FIND to gather more data on the industry response to COVID-19 and Hogarth hopes to build links with the NIHR Innovation Lab for future work.

Added Hogarth: “It is important to share resources and expertise. FIND and NIHR have the definitive lists because they have data on immunoassays, as well as molecular diagnostics, but our strength is our broader understanding of the molecular diagnostics sector that we have developed over many years.”

My research is focused on viruses in bats that can be transmitted to people or domestic animals. We call these zoonotic viruses. The work is important in helping to understand where and how pandemics may emerge, and can help reduce people’s exposure to diseases. However, once a pandemic is underway it becomes a public health issue and other colleagues are better placed than me to respond. Like many scientists, I’ve offered to help assess new evidence relating to the coronavirus, for example by responding to requests from the teams of modellers who advise the UK Government.  

I’m quite lucky that my work is mainly office-based, so working from home hasn’t caused too much disruption apart from having to cancel a few trips and conferences. Obviously, staying in touch with everyone in my team requires a bit more organisation, but they’re all doing well. On the plus side I get to spend more time with my three year-old son.

I’m part of a large international consortium, called Bat One Health, studying zoonotic viruses in bats in Africa, Asia and Australia. Using years of field data, we develop models to investigate how bat ecology affects the spread of viruses. We have come to realise that human activities, by disrupting wildlife, increase the risk of diseases spreading to humans in multiple ways. Working with academics and communities in affected countries, our goal is to come up with practical and sustainable solutions to preserve biodiversity while reducing threats to human health.

The UK and other high-income countries are experiencing unprecedented challenges in responding to the outbreak. But I think the biggest crisis is just beginning to hit many African and Asian countries. Many have recorded very low numbers of cases so far and some have imposed drastic social distancing measures. However, the virus has likely been spreading through those countries for weeks due to the lack of detection capacity. If severe cases increase exponentially in poor communities that lack access to health care, we could soon be witnessing a new humanitarian crisis.

The reaction of the University’s research community has been quite extraordinary. Online forums have been set up to exchange information and coordinate action, to ensure that the necessary resources and expertise can be found and employed very quickly. Even though it’s often claimed that researchers work in silos, that’s not my experience at all: interdisciplinary research is thriving.

The irony is that we have been expecting a pandemic like this for nearly twenty years. We learned a lot from recent international outbreaks of SARS, Ebola and swine flu in particular, and contingency plans had been drafted by some of the best experts. The research was shared with governments and also with the general public, for example in David Quammen’s excellent book Spillover (2012) and in the Hollywood film Contagion (2011). So why didn’t this knowledge translate into better preparedness? This is yet another example of short-term political priorities getting in the way of planning for extreme events. 

From an academic perspective, better collaborations between natural scientists and economists would certainly help. The coronavirus outbreak definitely highlights the importance of research on zoonotic viruses in wildlife ‘upstream’ of pandemics. In addition to continuing our work on viruses in bats, we’ll be looking for new opportunities to collaborate with public health scientists and policy makers. More than ever, our emphasis will be on capacity-building in Africa. 

When the pandemic is over, I’m most looking forward to meeting up with relatives and friends. I’m also conscious that the current restrictions are causing major disruptions for our students, who will need additional support to catch up. Hopefully the experience will inspire more students to work on pandemics and appreciate the importance of interdisciplinary research. 

Dr Olivier Restif is Alborada Lecturer in Epidemiology, based in the University’s Department of Veterinary Medicine.  Read his recent opinion piece for The Conversation.

How you can support Cambridge’s COVID-19 research
 

The creation of the newly combined Cambridge University Boat Club (CUBC) is a decisive step in the unification process of CUBC, CUWBC and CULRC that began with a meeting convened by Vice-Chancellor Stephen J Toope together with senior representatives of the three Boat Clubs in September 2018. 

Annamarie Phelps, the new CUBC Chair elect said: “After last year’s dominating performances across the Boat Races this is a huge step forward for the future of rowing at Cambridge University. Bringing all our talented student athletes, staff and alumni together into a single organisation is a once in a generation opportunity to create a modern, sustainable and successful new club that is truly fit for the future. Huge thanks to all those who have led this work and to the members who have voted for a bright new, light blue, future.”

Professor Toope and Senior Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Education Graham Virgo said: “We are delighted that the members of the University Boat Clubs have voted overwhelmingly to form a single rowing club. In these uncertain times, this decision places Cambridge University high performance rowing in a very strong position for the future. We are grateful for the hard work of the representatives of the boat clubs and others who have done so much to unify the boat clubs.”

There is much debate over the economic costs of our lockdown lives: whether the price of disease mitigation is worth the risk of an enduring financial crisis.

New research from the University of Cambridge suggests that there is no absolute trade-off between the economy and human health – and that the economic price of inaction could be twice as high as that of a “structured lockdown”.

A Cambridge economist, together with researchers at the US Federal Reserve Board, has combined macroeconomics with aspects of epidemiology to develop a model for the economic consequences of social distancing.

The study uses US economic and population data, but the researchers say their findings have implications for most developed economies.

It divides the working population into “core workers” – those in healthcare as well as food and transportation, sanitation and energy supply, among others – and then everyone else, and models the spread of the virus if no action is taken.

“Without public health restrictions, the random spread of the disease will inevitably hit sectors and industries that are essential for the economy to run,” said co-author Prof Giancarlo Corsetti, from Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics.

“Labour shortfalls among core workers in particular strip more value from the economy. As essential team members within this core sector drop out of the workforce, it impairs production far more than losing those in other areas of the economy.”

By separating the core and non-core workers, the study suggests that the economy would shrink by 30% or more without lockdown and social distancing. “By ignoring this division in the workforce, we may badly underestimate the true depth of economic damage,” Corsetti said.

Using data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the researchers then quantified the share of workers who could “reasonably keep performing occupational tasks at home”: 15% of those in core sectors, and 40% of everyone else currently working – along with 30% of all non-working age people, from children to the retired. This puts a third of the entire population on lockdown.   

In this scenario, the infection curve is smoothed out through social distancing, and the rate of loss in economic output is around 15%, just half the level of damage if no action is taken to prevent disease spread.

Sickness rates for core workers would be the same as the rest of the population, the high levels of social distancing elsewhere act as a shield.  

“This overarching policy flattens the curve,” said Corsetti. “The peak of the infected share of the population drops from 40% to about 15%. However, this is still far too high given the capacities of healthcare systems.”

So the researchers also modelled a scenario where infection rates are kept to a manageable level for healthcare services of under 1.5% of the population for 18 months – the length of time many believe it will take for a vaccine to arrive. 

This would mean lockdown shares of 25% of core workers, 60% of workers outside of core, and 47% of non-working age people. Under this scenario, the economy contracts by 20%.

The study also looked at a very strict lockdown – 40% of core workers and 90% each of non-working age and everyone else – that lasts for just three months. Such a scenario simply delays the infection rates but prevents “herd immunity”, creating an economic drop comparable to that of taking no action in the first place.

“As well as containing the loss of life, committing to long-term social distancing structured to keep core workers active can significantly smooth the economic costs of the disease,” said Corsetti. 

“The more we can target lockdown policies toward sections of the population who are not active in the labour market, or who work outside of the core sector, the greater the benefit to the economy,” he said.

“What seems clear to us is that taking no action is unacceptable from public health perspective, and extremely risky from an economic perspective.” 

However, Corsetti and colleagues caution that the lingering uncertainties around just how the coronavirus spreads means their scenarios are not forecasts, but should be taken as a “blueprint” for further analysis.

The research is published as a Cambridge-INET working paper: https://www.inet.econ.cam.ac.uk/working-paper-pdfs/wp2017.pdf

The Cambridge-INET Institute has a dedicated website for research relating to the pandemic: http://covid.econ.cam.ac.uk/ 
 

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Published today in the journal Nature, the study involved brain injured patients showing very minimal or no signs of awareness of the external world. It found that 100% of patients who reacted to the sniff test went on to regain consciousness, and over 91% of these patients were still alive three and a half years after injury. 

“The accuracy of the sniff test is remarkable - I hope it will help in the treatment of severely brain injured patients around the world,” said Anat Arzi, a researcher in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Psychology and the Weizmann Institute of Science Israel, who led the research, together with Professor Noam Sobel from the Weizmann Institute of Science Israel and Dr Yaron Sacher from the Loewenstein Rehabilitation Hospital Israel.

It is often difficult for doctors to determine a patient’s state of consciousness after a severe brain injury. Errors in diagnosis are made in up to 40% of cases. A patient that is minimally conscious differs from one in a vegetative state, and their future outcomes differ. An accurate diagnosis is critical because it informs treatment strategies such as pain management, and can underlie end-of-life decisions. 

Our sense of smell is a very basic mechanism and relies on structures deep within the brain. The brain automatically changes the way we sniff in response to different smells - for example, when presented with an unpleasant smell we automatically take shorter, shallower breaths. In healthy humans the sniff-response happens in both waking and sleeping states of consciousness. 

Research was conducted on 43 severely brain-injured patients. The experimenter first explained to each patient that different smells would be presented to them in jars, and the breathing through their nose would be monitored using a small tube called a nasal cannula. There was no indication that the patients heard or understood.

Next, a jar containing either a pleasant smell of shampoo, an unpleasant smell of rotten fish, or no smell at all was presented to each patient for five seconds. Each jar was presented ten times in a random order, and a measurement was made of the volume of air sniffed by the patient.

The researchers found that minimally conscious patients inhaled significantly less in response to smells, but did not discriminate between nice and nasty smells. These patients also modified their nasal airflow in response to the jar with no smell. This implies awareness of the jar or a learned anticipation of a smell. Vegetative state patients varied - some did not change their breathing in response to either of the smells, but others did.

A follow-up investigation three and a half years later found that over 91% of the patients who had a sniff response shortly after injury were still alive, but 63% of those who had showed no response had died.

By measuring the sniff-response in severely brain injured patients, the researchers could measure the functioning of deep-seated brain structures. Across the patient group they found that sniff-responses differed consistently between those in a vegetative state and those in a minimally conscious state - providing further evidence for an accurate diagnostic. 

“We found that if patients in a vegetative state had a sniff response, they later transitioned to at least a minimally conscious state. In some cases, this was the only sign that their brain was going to recover - and we saw it days, weeks and even months before any other signs,” said Arzi.

In a vegetative state the patient may open their eyes, wake up and fall asleep regularly and have basic reflexes, but they don’t show any meaningful responses or signs of awareness. A minimally conscious state differs because the patient may have periods where they can show signs of awareness or respond to commands.

“When the sniff response is functioning normally it shows that the patient might still have some level of consciousness even when all other signs are absent,” said Dr Tristan Bekinschtein in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Psychology, who was involved in the study. “This new and simple method to assess the likelihood of recovery should be immediately incorporated in the diagnostic tools for patients with disorders of consciousness.” 

This research was funded by the Rob and Cheryl McEwen Fund for Brain Research, the Blavatnik family Foundation, the Royal Society and the European Molecular Biology Organisation.

Reference
Arzi, A. et al: ‘Olfactory Sniffing Signals Consciousness in Unresponsive Patients with Brain Injuries.’ Nature, April 2020. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2245-5 

Fellows are chosen for their outstanding contributions to scientific understanding. The 62 newly elected Fellows embody the global nature of science, and are elected for life through a peer review process based on excellence in science. Past Fellows and Foreign Members include Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin, Dorothy Hodgkin and Stephen Hawking.

The Royal Society is a self-governing Fellowship made up of the most eminent scientists, engineers and technologists from the UK and the Commonwealth. Its Foreign Members are drawn from the rest of the world. The Society’s fundamental purpose is to recognise, promote and support excellence in science and to encourage the development and use of science for the benefit of humanity.

Sir Venki Ramakrishnan, President of the Royal Society, said: “At this time of global crisis, the importance of scientific thinking, and the medicines, technologies and insights it delivers, has never been clearer. Our Fellows and Foreign Members are central to the mission of the Royal Society, to use science for the benefit of humanity.

"While election to the Fellowship is a recognition of exceptional individual contributions to the sciences, it is also a network of expertise that can be drawn on to address issues of societal, and global significance. This year’s Fellows and Foreign Members have helped shape the 21st century through their work at the cutting-edge of fields from human genomics, to climate science and machine learning. 

"It gives me great pleasure to celebrate these achievements, and those yet to come, and welcome them into the ranks of the Royal Society.”

The Cambridge scientists announced today as Royal Society Fellows are:

Professor Kevin Brindle FMedSci, Department of Biochemistry and Cancer Research UK Cambridge Institute. His current research is focused on novel imaging methods for detecting cancer progression and to monitor early tumour responses to treatment, with an emphasis on translating these techniques to the clinic.

Professor Vikram Deshpande, Department of Engineering, for his seminal contributions in microstructural mechanics. His works include developing ‘metallic wood’, sheets of nickel as strong as titanium, but four-times lighter thanks to their plant-like nanoscale pores.

Professor Marian Holness, Department of Earth Sciences. She has created a new approach to decoding rock history, and concentrates on understanding the evolution of bodies of magma trapped in the crust, which ultimately controls the eruptive behaviour of any overlying volcano. 

Professor Giles Oldroyd, Russell R Geiger Professor of Crop Science, Crop Science Centre and Group Leader, Sainsbury Laboratory. He is leading an international research programme attempting to achieve more equitable and sustainable agriculture through the enhanced use of beneficial microbial associations.  

Professor Hugh Osborn, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics for work in theoretical physics on quantum field theory and in particular conformal field theory. 

Professor Didier Queloz, Cavendish Laboratory, for his part in the discovery of the first planet beyond our solar system, for which he shared the Nobel Prize in Physics last year. Hundreds more exoplanets have since been revealed by his pioneering observational techniques.

Dr Sarah Teichmann FMedSci, Director of Research, Cavendish Laboratory and Senior Research Fellow, Churchill College, for her contributions to computational biology and genomics, including her role in founding and leading the Human Cell Atlas international consortium to map all cell types in the human body.

Professor Stephen Young, Department of Engineering, for pioneering the statistical approach to language processing - namely, treating conversation as a reinforcement learning problem - that made the speech-recognition products in millions of homes a reality.

Professor Jack Thorne, Department of Pure Maths and Mathematical Statistics for multiple breakthroughs in diverse areas of algebraic number theory. At age 32, he becomes the youngest living member of the Fellowship.

In addition, Dr William Schafer at the MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, based at the Cambridge Biomedical Campus, has been elected as a Fellow.

I work in the Department of Pathology at Addenbrooke’s Hospital. Although it’s now closed I’m still here, along with others from the Division of Virology and volunteers from the Department of Medicine. We’re supported by two great Lab Managers, who take it in turns to come in and keep the labs operational. Without them, and the staff working from home placing urgent orders, we’d be in a very difficult position. 
  
I gained experience in setting up rapid diagnostics and in viral genetic sequencing when working on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, and the recent Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. I’m lucky to have a great team of people here in Cambridge, including Dr Luke Meredith who has recently returned from a very stressful six months in South Sudan where he was a World Health Organisation Coordinator for Ebola and COVID-19 testing. 
 
During the COVID-19 pandemic we are sequencing the coronavirus in real time. We collect samples from the Addenbrooke’s diagnostic team, sequence them, piece together the genomes and upload the data to a national server for analysis. The process is similar to many molecular methods we use routinely in the lab. We’ve been able to go from a standing start to producing viral sequences within 24 hours. This work is part a large national consortium headed by Professor Sharon Peacock in the Department of Medicine. 

Revealing the genetic sequence of the virus can improve knowledge about COVID-19, and can provide invaluable information about the size of the epidemic and potential sources of infections. As highlighted by Dr Mike Ryan from the WHO, preparedness is important, but moving fast is essential. If you don't make decisions quickly then you get behind the epidemic curve. Responding rapidly is more important than making sure everything is 100% correct.

I’ve also been coordinating local volunteers to enable them to support the national response. Working with Rhys Grant in the University’s Department of Biochemistry, we’ve set up a website to capture volunteers with skills relevant to COVID-19 testing. Our database now has over 1200 people from Cambridge signed up. We’ve used it to get Cambridge staff engaged in the establishment of the national testing lab in Milton Keynes, and are feeding into local efforts to establish the fourth national testing centre here in Cambridge.

Rapid wide-spread testing of the community is the biggest challenge we face relating to this pandemic. It will be key to stamping out clusters of the infection in the coming months.

The Cambridge research community has really come together. Everyone is keen to help in the response efforts, and the heads of institutes have been very supportive of anyone wanting to engage. Our staff have a real ‘can do’ attitude and a drive to overcome practical challenges. We’ve been able to engage people from many departments in various aspects of the work very quickly. Trying to wade through regulatory issues is more of a challenge.
 
We are also involved in developing a programme of research on COVID-19. A new initiative in the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease (CITIID), led by Professor Ken Smith, has been set up to enable university-wide research on COVID-19. This draws together people from across the University, with various skills and interests in different aspects of COVID-19, to engage in collaborative studies. It makes use of the excellent facilities in the new Jeffrey Cheah Biomedical Centre, including a state of the art containment level 3 laboratory that enables work with live COVID-19.

After the pandemic is over I’m really looking forward to taking a well-deserved holiday with my family. Everyday life as an academic is challenging at the best of times, but when you layer on top the pressure of working in a pandemic, trying to support the efforts in multiple ways and trying to juggle so many things, it can really take its toll.

Goodfellow in the lab at Addenbrooke's Hospital with his team

How you can support Cambridge's COVID-19 research effort

An analysis of possible COVID-19 economic recovery packages shows the potential for strong alignment between the economy and the environment. The direction of these measures over the next six months will largely determine whether the worst impacts of global warming can be avoided, and research published today reveals that climate-friendly policies can deliver a better result for the economy – and the environment.

Drawing on a global survey of senior central bank and finance ministry officials, as well as learnings from the 2008 financial crisis, economists found that green projects create more jobs, deliver higher short-term returns per dollar spent and lead to increased long-term cost savings, by comparison with traditional fiscal stimulus.

“The COVID-19-initiated emissions reduction could be short-lived,” said lead author Cameron Hepburn from the University of Oxford. “But this report shows we can choose to build back better, keeping many of the recent improvements we’ve seen in cleaner air, returning nature and reduced greenhouse gas emissions.”

“The markets are not unduly worried about UK public debt and neither should we be,” said co-author Dimitri Zenghelis, Special Advisor to the Wealth Economy Project, Bennett Institute, University of Cambridge. “The key is that new borrowing is invested wisely to generate productivity-enhancing innovation, resilient output and a sustainable expansion of capacity. We cannot go back to the old model of business as usual, instead we should confront the economic threat posed by ‘fear’ through investment in building back better.”

A team of internationally-recognised experts came together to assess the economic and climate impact of taking a green route out of the crisis. They catalogued more than 700 stimulus policies into 25 broad groups, and conducted a global survey of 231 experts from 53 countries, including from finance ministries and central banks.

Noting that ‘green’ policies could be widely defined, the study focused on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as the key environmentally-beneficial criteria. The paper, to be published in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, observes that desirable policies have a large return on investment, can be enacted quickly and have a strongly positive impact on climate. Examples include investment in renewable energy production, such as wind or solar. As previous research has shown, in the short term, clean energy infrastructure construction is particularly labour intensive, creating twice as many jobs per dollar as fossil fuel investments, as well as being less susceptible to off-shoring.

Other desirable policies included building efficiency retrofit spending, clean research and development spending, natural capital investment for ecosystem resilience and regeneration, and investment in education and training to address immediate unemployment from COVID-19 alongside unemployment from decarbonisation. For developing countries, rural support scheme spending, such as on sustainable agriculture, was also highly ranked. Meanwhile, non-conditional airline bailouts performed the most poorly on both economic impact and climate metrics.

Most G20 governments have implemented significant relief measures as a result of the pandemic. But, as yet, none has introduced any significant fiscal recovery measures. The study authors hope that countries will seize this generational opportunity to take account of these criteria into national plans – for their economies and the environment.

In addition, the COP26 Universities Network has drawn on this research and other analyses to create a briefing for policymakers outlining a path to net-zero emissions economic recovery from COVID-19. The network, a growing group of more than 30 UK-based universities, including the University of Cambridge, was formed to help deliver climate change outcomes at the UN Climate Summit in Glasgow and beyond.

They have put together a briefing that identifies nine fiscal recovery policies that promise to bring both short-term high economic impact and long-term structural change to ensure the UK meets its 2050 climate goals.

“Shaping the national and global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic in a way that supports the response to climate change and other environmental threats simply makes sense – not only does analysis suggest that green recovery packages deliver greater economic benefit, but investing appropriately in research, innovation, infrastructure and skills training, and matching that with robust institutional structures, will help create a fairer, more resilient, sustainable world with benefits for all,” said Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Director of Cambridge Zero. “As ever, good can be extracted from even the darkest hour, but it requires clear thinking, imagination and bold leadership.”

Among the policies emphasised are: renewable energy, reducing industrial emissions through carbon capture and storage, investment in broadband internet to increase coverage, electric vehicles and nature-based solutions. The group further called for the Cabinet Committee on Climate Change to be renamed the Climate Change Emergency Committee to reflect the urgent need for action.

“Currently, the UK directs €10.5bn in subsidies to fossil fuels. Reallocating this capital to jobs-rich renewable energy projects would be a win-win for the economy and environment,” said Brian O’Callaghan, economist at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford. 

The briefing highlights the leadership role of the UK in the leadup to COP26, as well as the opportunity to lead by example with a green recovery package. But the universities warned that the specific designs of any policy would ultimately determine its effectiveness.

References: 
Hepburn, C., O’Callaghan, B., Stern, N., Stiglitz, J., and Zenghelis, D. 2020. “Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change? (PDF)” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(S1), forthcoming.
Allan, J., Donovan, C., Ekins, P., Gambhir, A., Hepburn, C., Reay, D., Robins, N., Shuckburgh E., and Zenghelis, D. (2020). A net-zero emissions economic recovery from COVID-19. COP26 Universities Network Briefing.

Adapted from a University of Oxford press release.

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Jair Bolsonaro’s public undermining of pandemic prevention efforts reduces social distancing in the parts of Brazil where his voter base is strongest, according to a new study using location data from over 60 million phones.

Economists used electoral data and anonymised geo-location from devices across Brazil to investigate whether the president’s outspoken anti-quarantine attitude influenced numbers of citizens staying at home to stop coronavirus spread.

Researchers from the University of Cambridge and Sao Paolo School of Economics-FGV found that municipalities which came out strongly for Bolsonaro in the last election have seen much higher levels of movement and travel among the population during February and March.

Additionally, in the days immediately after Bolsonaro’s televised dismissals of COVID-19 mitigation – e.g. publicly defying quarantine guidance or calling for schools to reopen – Brazil’s social distancing fell in general, and fell much more sharply in pro-Bolsonaro areas.           

“Our research suggests that statements on public health behaviour from political leaders are taken seriously by their followers, regardless of how scientifically accurate they are, or how damaging they might be,” said Dr Tiago Cavalcanti, study author from Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics.

“Bolsonaro actively challenges the regulations imposed by sub-national governments to stem the coronavirus tide. He dismisses WHO recommendations and even those of his own minister of health, who he has recently fired.”

“Using big data research, we see the president’s attitude play out at a population level. Brazil is a polarized nation with a populist leader. The patterns we see in Brazil could be echoed in nations with a similar political situation, such as the United States,” he said.

Cavalcanti and his colleagues Dr Nicholas Ajzenman and Dr Daniel Da Mata looked at the percentage of mobile phones that remained within a 450-metre radius of their home location between February 4 and April 7 2020.

They compared this “social distancing index” with the voting record of each of Brazil’s 5,570 municipalities, in particular whether Bolsanaro received more or less than 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2018 election.

Social distancing has gone up across Brazil since the contagion began. In the top 3% of cities with the highest Bolsonaro vote counts*, such as Ascurra in Santa Catarina and Nova Santa Rosa in Parana, this increase was an average of 24 percentage points.

However, in cities at the bottom of Bolsonaro’s support spectrum*, such as Paricoa in Alagoas and Irapuan Pinheiro in Ceara, social distancing was much higher: a 31 percentage point increase.

The study suggests that, on average during February and March, the cities where support for Bolsonaro is highest had levels of social distancing that were almost 30% lower than cities where Bolsonaro has very little support.

The economists also analysed two key televised appearances by Bolsonaro in March, during which he openly disparaged efforts to control the pandemic.

The first was on March 15, when Bolsonaro – suspected at the time of carrying COVID-19 – appeared at a supporters rally in Brazilia, flaunting public health guidelines by taking selfies and doling out fist bumps in the throng.

The second was on March 24. In an official presidential pronouncement he called for schools to reopen nationwide, and criticized Brazilian media for too much reporting on the pandemic in Italy, suggesting he would only get “a little flu” at worst from COVID-19.

The research shows how both these appearances caused social distancing levels to drop in the ten days after each event when compared to the ten days leading up them. The drop was particularly significant in municipalities with high numbers of Bolsonaro voters.

In fact, Cavalcanti suggests that, based on their data, a rough calculation for the effects of the March 24 appearance sees approximately one million additional Brazilians across the nation straying more than 450 metres from their home on each of the ten days following the televised speech. 

“Leadership matters,” said Cavalcanti. “The attitude of a leader can have a significant and possibly devastating impact on individual health and the healthcare systems of a nation.”

“When Bolsonaro minimises the pandemic, we see significant increases in what is now risky behaviour within large sections of the Brazilian population.”

“As coronavirus cases and fatalities continue to rise across Brazil, the behaviour of its leader may be having a very real and dangerous effect,” he said. 

The researchers also found that Bolsonaro’s televised appearances, and the press coverage that ensued, much of it negative, was linked to a more significant drop in social distancing in areas with “high media access”*.

The team calculated the overall change in Brazil’s social distancing during the period for which they have data. In early February, before the pandemic took hold, around 20% of the Brazilian population stayed within 450 metres of their house. By early April, this had increased to around 53%.   

The researchers worked with technology company In Loco to produce the phone data analysis, and the complete findings are published as a Cambridge-INET working paper here: http://covid.econ.cam.ac.uk/

Notes:
* Top 3% of cities for Bolsonaro support had an average Bolsonaro vote of 82% in the first round of the 2018 elections.
* The bottom 3% of cities for Bolsonaro support had an average Bolsonaro vote of 5% in the first round of the 2018 elections.
* “High media access” is defined as municipalities in the top 25% nationally for average internet penetration, plus at least one local TV broadcaster. 

How you can support Cambridge's COVID-19 research effort

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The flexible method of parenting, known as ‘autonomy support’, places emphasis on the child taking the lead. As the child engages in tasks, parents should watch and adjust how they respond according to how the child is managing, say the researchers. They acknowledge that this method of helping the child to be in control is not necessarily easy.

“It’s not about doing everything for your child, or directing their actions. It’s more of a to-and-fro between parent and child. Parents who do best at this can sit back and watch when they see their child succeeding with something, but increase support or adapt the task when they see the child struggling,” said Professor Claire Hughes, Deputy Director of the Centre for Family Research at the University of Cambridge, and joint first author of the study with Dr Rory Devine at the University of Birmingham’s School of Psychology.

The study, published in the journal Developmental Science, found a link between parental autonomy support in 14-month-old children, and reduced behavioural problems ten months later. But this link only applied to children who had been rated as ‘easy babies’- those in a generally happy mood, who adapted easily to new experiences and quickly established routines. Children who demonstrated high levels of self-control at 14 months were less likely than their peers to have behaviour problems at 24 months. 

“If you’re blessed with a happy baby, then you can get them through the ‘terrible twos’ without things getting too bad or lasting too long, by being flexible about the way you play with your child between the age of 14 and 24 months. A puzzle game, for example, can turn into quite a different game if you allow your child to take the lead,” said Hughes. 

Many toddlers have temper tantrums and exhibit frustration and defiant behaviour, in what is commonly known as the ‘terrible twos’. Unfortunately, the autonomy support strategy isn’t equally effective for all children: those born with a more irritable temperament are still more likely to be difficult toddlers.

Parenting must be tailored according to the child, say the researchers. Parents who don’t remember their baby having an easy temperament should let go of the idea of achieving specific goals during play, and allow their children to develop at their own pace. 

“As we cope with the upheavals of being in lockdown, we’re having to be patient with ourselves in so many ways. Parents particularly need to be more patient with the toddlers who found life a bit more challenging, even in ordinary times,” said Hughes.

Over 400 expectant couples were recruited for the study from the East of England, New York State and the Netherlands. Each couple was visited when their new baby was 4 months, 14 months and 24 months old, and filmed interacting as their young children carried out a range of specific tasks. The research team carefully rated the level of parental support for each interaction. In addition, parents rated their child’s temperament as a baby, and behavioural problems at 14 and 24 months. 

Simple tasks were used to test the level of autonomy support parents gave to their child. In one, each child was given farm animal pieces that fitted into cut-out shapes on a board. Some of the parents appeared quite anxious for their child to put the pieces in the right places, and gave them a lot of help. Others spotted that the task was too difficult for their child, and let the game evolve by following the child’s lead.

“We had some children who took two animal pieces from a wooden farm puzzle and started clapping them together, and making a game out of the fact that they made a clapping noise. Here, parents might respond by encouraging the child to make animal noises that match the animals being clapped together,” said Devine. ”Autonomy supportive parenting is about being flexible, following a child’s lead, and providing just the right amount of challenge.” 

During lockdown, many parents are having to look after young children at home rather than leaving them in nursery care during working hours. Trying to keep children motivated and engaged all day can be a daunting task. Yet having more time to spend with young children can also be seen as a rare opportunity to explore new ways of engaging with them, say the researchers.

“Rather than trying to make a child achieve a rigidly defined task, autonomy support is more of a playful interaction. It promotes the child’s problem solving and their ability to learn, by letting games or tasks evolve into experiences that engage them,” said Hughes. 

Previous studies have looked at links between executive function and antisocial behaviour, and separately at family influences on conduct problems. This study is unique in its direct observational measures of parent-child interactions, in combination with a group of executive function tasks. 

The researchers found the link between executive function at 14 months and reduced problem behaviours at 24 months held up even when controlling for other factors like a child's language skills, and the quality of mother-child interactions. 

This research was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, the National Science Foundation and the Dutch Research Council (NWO).

Reference
Hughes, C., Devine, R.T., Mesman, J., & Blair, C.; ‘Understanding the Terrible Twos: A longitudinal investigation of the impact of early executive function and parent-child interactions.’ Developmental Science, April 2020. DOI: 10.1111/desc.12979 

Cambridge’s Centre for Family Research is launching a new online study of parents with one or more child between the ages of four and seven, to explore how the coronavirus is affecting family relationships and home learning. This will help provide the evidence base to guide effective educational and health policies. Find out more. 

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A new study of public attitudes across Europe, America and Asia has found that people in the UK have the highest overall levels of concern about coronavirus – more than Italy or Spain – while those in South Korea are the least concerned.

Researchers from the University of Cambridge conducted surveys on how people feel and think about the risk of the virus between mid-March and mid-April, across ten different countries with varying approaches to tackling the pandemic.

The study, co-authored by Dr Sarah Dryhurst and Dr Claudia Schneider from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, measured risk perception by combining people’s ratings of how prevalent, how life-threatening, and how worrying they thought the virus was.

The Cambridge team also set out to uncover some of the key psychological factors behind people’s concern. The findings, based on data from 6,991 participants, are published today in the Journal of Risk Research.

“Without pharmaceutical treatment, we are relying on people changing their behaviour to put the brakes on this pandemic,” said Dr Sander van der Linden, study lead and Director of the Cambridge Social Decision-Making Lab.

“The willingness to adopt protective behaviours such as frequent hand-washing or physical distancing is likely to be influenced, in part, by how risky people perceive the virus to be.”

“We think this is the first comparative evidence of how people perceive the risk of COVID-19 around the world,” he said.

In the study’s sample, Spain followed the UK for greatest public concern about coronavirus, with the US in third place. Although remaining differences were smaller, Germany came in fourth above Sweden – where the government has been less proscriptive about lockdowns – followed by Australia then Japan.

Perhaps surprisingly, Italy – the pandemic’s first European epicentre – ranked fairly low out of the ten nations, with only Mexico and South Korea having lower average risk perception scores.

However, there was little difference between many of the countries, with risk perception generally high in all nations.

The researchers also found that greater concern about the virus did indeed correlate with taking a number of preventative public health measures such as increased hand washing or wearing facemasks. 

Men typically had lower levels of concern about the virus than women, despite the fact that, on average, COVID-19 appears to be considerably more dangerous to men if contracted.

The significance of different psychological factors varied between countries. However, some attitudes and traits consistently indicated increased perception of risk in people across several countries.

For example, across all nations, those who suspected they had already contracted the virus perceived a higher risk from it. In several countries, people who got information on the virus from friends or family also perceived higher risk.

“Prosociality”, or a belief in the importance of doing things for the benefit of others, related to heightened concern about the virus in nine of the ten countries. In fact, it emerged as one of the most important psychological factors of risk perception internationally.

“Appealing to prosocial motives can be an important part of solving social dilemmas during pandemics,” said Dr Claudia Schneider, co-author of the study. “For example, ‘clap for our carers’ campaigns help us to publicly signal prosocial intentions through shared sentiment and the spread of positive emotions.”

By contrast, what the researchers term an “individualistic worldview” – inferred from a belief that governments meddle too much in our lives – related to lower levels of concern about the risks of coronavirus.    

While this worldview is famously associated with certain US states, it was also significantly related to risk perception in several other countries, such as Germany, Sweden, Spain, Japan and the UK.

“The perception that the government is restricting people’s freedom might cause psychological pushback among some people with strong individualistic worldviews,” said Dr Sarah Dryhurst, co-author of the study. “We see this expressed in anti-lockdown protests in the US and Germany, for example.”

Political ideology was less significant for risk perception overall, although a more conservative outlook was associated with lower levels of concern in the UK and the US.

“Governments are asking people to stay inside and give up their livelihoods in order to protect their societies. It’s important we understand how people react to the information and instructions they receive about the virus,” said Dr Alexandra Freeman, Director of the Winton Centre.

“We’ve made all our data publicly available to help institutions and journalists communicate better. We hope that this work can help the global effort to react appropriately to this threat,” she said.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, co-author and Chairman of the Winton Centre, added: "As we move towards relaxing the lockdown, it is important to understand both the overall levels of concern, and the variability between people in their attitudes to the virus and the counter-measures taken. This evidence suggests that different worldviews need to be taken into account."

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