Two million hectare shortfall in UK land possible by 2030, study finds

By 2030, the UK could require up to 7 million hectares of additional land to meet a growing population’s food, space and renewable energy needs, while increasing the area needed to protect nature and its services, a new report coordinated by the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL) has warned. This represents more than 35% of the UK’s existing agricultural land, and compares with up to 5 million hectares that might be released from a range of potential supply side initiatives.

The report, The Best Use of UK Agricultural Land, was produced by the Cambridge-hosted Natural Capital Leaders Platform in collaboration with Asda, Sainsbury’s, Nestlé, BOCM PAULS, AB Agri, Yara, BASF, and Volac, as well as the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) and the Country Land and Business Association. The aim was to understand the amount of additional land needed, and provide a simple, clear vision for UK agricultural land use alongside a set of principles to guide future decision-making.

Andrew Montague-Fuller, Programme Manager at CISL, and author of the report said: “In this initial analysis, we identified a significant gap between additional land demand and potential supply, as well as a worrying lack of clarity about what agricultural land is expected to deliver. It is clear that more research is needed, and that business, government, farmers, and landowners need to work together to ensure we can meet these growing demands, while also protecting the environment.”

The report quantifies a number of ‘supply-side’ measures that could help to meet additional demand, including improving yields and reducing food waste, while highlighting the need to understand how much land can be used for multiple purposes. But it warns that these initiatives may not be sufficient to close the gap, in which case difficult choices will need to be made.

Dr Chris Brown, Sustainable Business Director at Asda said: “Businesses need clarity to inform supply chain choices and guide investment decisions. We would highly recommend this report to industry colleagues, Government departments and key farming organisations and strongly support the further development of its analysis and joint vision of how UK agricultural land needs to be optimised.”

Andy Richardson, Head of Corporate Communications at Volac, said: “I hope the vision proposed in this report is a catalyst for greater action and integrated thinking on land use. Lack of leadership in this area has the potential to compromise our future food and energy security. We should take the opportunity to join up thinking between Industry and Government by building on this report’s analysis to develop a decision making framework and an action plan.”

Dr Andrea Graham, Chief Land Management Adviser at the NFU, said: "While there are complex trade-offs and tough choices ahead on land use, this report shows that agricultural land will need to be multi-functional, delivering a range of goods and services. We will need the full range of tools to meet future demand, employing the very best technology and innovation to drive efficiency, quality, yields and profitability."