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Larger brain size linked to longer life in deer

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The study, published in the Royal Society Open Science journal, shows that female red deer with larger brains live longer and have more surviving offspring than those with smaller brains. Brain size is heritable and is passed down through the generations. This is the first extensive study of individual differences in brain size in wild mammals and draws on data comparing seven generations of deer. 

Across species of mammals, brain size varies widely. This is thought to be a consequence of specific differences in the benefits and costs of a larger brain. Mammals with larger brains may, for example, have greater cognitive abilities that enable them to adapt better to environmental changes or they may have longer lifespans. But there may also be disadvantages: for instance, larger brains require more energy, so individuals that possess them may show reduced fertility.  

The researchers, based at the University of Cambridge's Zoology Department and Edinburgh University's Institute of Evolutionary Biology, wanted to test if they could find more direct genetic or non-genetic evidence of the costs and benefits of large brain size by comparing the longevity and survival of individuals of the same species with different sized brains. Using the skulls of 1,314 wild red deer whose life histories and breeding success had been monitored in the course of a long-term study on the Isle of Rum, they found that females with larger endocranial volumes lived longer and produced more surviving offspring in the course of their lives. 

Lead author Dr Corina Logan, a Gates Cambridge Scholar and Leverhulme Early Career Research Fellow in Cambridge's Department of Zoology, says: "The reasons for the association between brain size and longevity are not known, but other studies have suggested that larger brains are a consequence of the longer-lived species having longer developmental periods in which the brain can grow. These hypotheses were generated from cross-species correlations; however, testing such hypotheses requires investigations at the within-species level, which is what we did."

Dr Logan adds: "We found that some of the cross-species predictions about brain size held for female red deer, and that none of the predictions were supported in male red deer. This indicates that each sex likely experiences its own set of trade-offs with regard to brain size.”

The study also showed that females' relative endocranial volume is smaller than that of males, despite evidence of selection for larger brains in females.

"We think this is likely due to sex differences in the costs and benefits related to larger brains," adds Dr Logan. "We don’t know what kinds of trade-offs each sex might encounter, but we assume there must be variables that constrain brain size that are sex specific, which is why we see selection in females, but not males."

Professor Tim Clutton-Brock, who set up the Rum Red Deer study with Fiona Guinness in 1972 and initiated the work on brain size, points out that the reason that this kind of study has not been conducted before is that it requires long term records of a large number of individuals across multiple generations and data of this kind are still rare in wild animals.

Reference
C.J. Logan, R. Stanley, A.M. Thompson, T.H. Clutton-Brock. Endocranial volume is heritable and is associated with longevity and fitness in a wild mammal. Royal Society Open Science; 14 Dec 2016; 10.1098/rsos.160622

The size of a female animals' brain may determine whether they live longer and have more healthy offspring, according to new research led by the University of Cambridge. 

We found that some of the cross-species predictions about brain size held for female red deer, and that none of the predictions were supported in male red deer. This indicates that each sex likely experiences its own set of trade-offs with regard to brain size.
Corina Logan
Deer skulls

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Kepler's Trial: An Opera

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The trial in which the famous astronomer, Johannes Kepler, defended his mother from accusations of witchcraft has been turned into an opera, following new research into the original 17th-century legal proceedings.

The opera was conceived by Cambridge historian Professor Ulinka Rublack, a fellow of St John’s College. It made its debut in October as part of Cambridge University’s Festival of Ideas. A film of Kepler’s Trial: An Opera is now available online.

Born in 1571, Johannes Kepler is one of the most admired astronomers who ever lived. He came from an ordinary family but became a major figure in the scientific revolution. He defended Copernicus’s idea that the sun was at the centre of the universe and defined three laws of planetary motion.

In 1615, at the height of his powers, Kepler abandoned his research to defend his elderly mother, Katharina, from charges of witchcraft. Her trial took place at the height of Europe’s infamous ‘witch-craze’. Thousands of people, mostly women, were executed for supposed dealings in the occult, and families were torn apart in a climate of paranoia and distrust.

The new opera tells the remarkable tale of Katharina’s six-year ordeal, and her son’s dogged, and ultimately successful, defence. Rublack’s recent book, The Astronomer and the Witch, is the first to provide a full account of the case.

It is not the first time that aspects of Johannes Kepler’s life have been given the operatic treatment. Philip Glass’s Kepler focused on the astronomer’s life and work, but overlooked the trial completely. In 1957, the German composer, Paul Hindemith, composed Die Harmonie der Welt (Harmony Of The World, also the title of one of Kepler’s most famous works.)

Like many other accounts of Kepler’s story, which either unwittingly swallow the 17th-century prosecution’s character assassination of Katharina, or reproduce it for dramatic effect, these treatments presented Kepler’s mother as crazed and witchlike.

Rublack sees the most recent opera as a response, in particular, to Hindemith’s work. “When I finished the book, I thought, there really has got to be a new opera about the subject now,” she said. “Hindemith depicts Katharina as a crazed, old crone. I wanted to put together a team to develop new perspectives and create a new way to tell the story.”

Kepler's Trial: An Opera draws on Rublack's research with supporting contributions from a group of interdisciplinary scholars and academics. The libretto was written by Tim Watts, a composer who teaches music at St John’s College and lectures in the University’s Faculty of Music.

The performance features video sequences by the artist Aura Satz, who is based at the Royal College of Art. The videos are designed to amplify its presiding themes: darkness and light, sight and illusion, and competing depictions of an ageing and vulnerable woman.

“Around 25,000 people were executed for witchcraft in the 16th and 17th centuries,” Rublack said. “When Katharina was accused in 1615, she was actually at a point in her life when things were going very well. The accusation came as completely unexpected for her and the family, and turned into something profoundly disturbing.”

Although she was ultimately acquitted thanks to her son’s defence (as well as helpful connections in the upper echelons of the justice system), the trial had devastating consequences. Katharina was disowned by two of her other children and spent 14 months of the trial period living in a prison cell, chained to the floor. She emerged both physically and emotionally exhausted, and died just six months later.

The opera makes use of musical styles from the time, drawing inspiration from the likes of Claudio Monteverdi as well as found materials such as contemporary drinking songs. It is performed using instruments that would have been popular during the period, such as cornets, sackbuts, and harpsichord.

The premiere took place in the atmospheric surroundings of the Chapel of St John’s College. The six violinists playing at the event were all from St John's; they included the College's Musician-in-Residence, Margaret Faultless, as well as five students.

The trial papers are still preserved in regional archives in Stuttgart. The libretto draws on the actual words of both Katharina and Johannes Kepler as they were recorded in court. Fragments of Katharina’s voice come through in prayers and her response to cross-examination, taken from the transcripts.

“It’s been easier to invent a voice for Katharina than it has been to define one for her son,” Watts reflected. “So many of his words exist already and we know a large amount about the kind of man he was, so there’s a lot more to filter.”

“The way that we tell the story offers a huge range for potential identification with characters and elements. There is a sense of worlds and generations colliding; it’s my hope that the piece involves such a range of character and generation that it will appeal to an equally wide range of people.”

An ambitious opera, telling the story of an infamous witch trial, was premiered in October. A film of Kepler's Trial the Opera is now available online. The project was conceived by historian Professor Ulinka Rublack whose recent research shines new light on a 400-year-old scandal.

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Road planning 'trade off' could boost food production while helping protect tropical forests

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Conservation scientists have used layers of data on biodiversity, climate, transport and crop yields to construct a colour-coded mapping system that shows where new road-building projects should go to be most beneficial for food production at the same time as being least destructive to the environment.

The hope is that this "trade-off" strategy might guide governments, investors and developers to focus on road expansions that make the most difference for current agricultural areas, rather than projects that threaten to open up significant natural habitats for conversion to farmland.

As a proof of concept, scientists applied their technique to a specific sub-region: the Greater Mekong in Southeast Asia - one of the most biologically important parts of the planet, and a place that has lost almost a third of its tropical forest since the 1970s.

They found a number of current road proposals in Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia have potential for massive habitat conversion with little benefit for populations and food security. They also found areas where new roads could increase food production and connectivity with limited environmental cost.

Researchers from the University of Cambridge, UK, the Kunming Institute of Botany and the World Agroforestry Centre in China say their study, published today in PLOS Biology, is an attempt to explore a more "conciliatory approach" in the hope of starting greater dialogue between developers and conservation experts.

They call on organisations such as the newly established Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as well as Asian Development Bank to use such analyses when considering investment in future road expansion projects in the Mekong region - an area undergoing rapid development.

"It is estimated that by 2050 we will build 25 million km of new road lanes, the majority of which will be in the developing world," says Andrew Balmford, Professor of Conservation Science at Cambridge.

"Conservationists can to appear to oppose nearly all new infrastructure, while developers and their financial backers are often fairly mute on the environmental impact of their proposals. This can lead to a breakdown in communication."

"The Mekong region is home to some of the world's most valuable tropical forests. It's also a region in which a lot of roads are going to be built, and blanket opposition by the conservation community is unlikely to stop this," says Prof Jianchu Xu from the Kunming Institute of Botany in China.

"Studies like ours help pinpoint the projects we should oppose most loudly, while transparently showing the reasons why and providing alternatives where environmental costs are lower and development benefits are greater.

"Conservationists need to be active voices in infrastructure development, and I think these approaches have the potential to change the tone of the conversation."

The Greater Mekong encompasses Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar and the Yunnan Province of China. It is home to around 20,000 plant species, 2000 types of land vertebrates and 850 species of freshwater fish. Much of this biodiversity is found nowhere else on the planet.

The saola, for example, is a mammal resembling a small antelope that was only discovered in 1992, and is so rare it is known as the "Asian unicorn". The region's vast forests also act as critical carbon 'sinks', absorbing greenhouse gases.

The Greater Mekong is also home to over 320 million people, and habitat loss has been accelerating. Between 1973 and 2009, an estimated 31% of the region's natural forest disappeared. Alongside this there is widespread poverty; food insecurity and malnutrition remain major challenges.

The researchers created the new framework for road planning in the Mekong by analysing various data sources: including crop yield gaps across the region, travel times between population hubs, range maps for birds and mammals, and biomass carbon stocks in soil and vegetation.

By combining this data into composite layers, the team were able to map them over the region and reduce the results to a simple green-to-purple colour scale comparing food production benefits to environmental costs.

In areas such as Myanmar's Ayeyarwady Delta, new roads could substantially boost food production through improved transport links for getting produce to market, lowering waste and increasing access to new technologies. This would come at a relatively limited environmental cost, as much of the area has been converted to agriculture, yet crop yields remain low.

However, researchers warn that planned projects in other areas with extensive forests, such as in northern Laos and western Yunnan in China, could devastate vital ecosystems with little gain for food production.

"If new roads are deployed strategically, and deliberately target already-cleared areas with poor transport connectivity, this could attract agricultural growth that might otherwise spread elsewhere," says Prof Xu.

For Balmford, this is perhaps the crux of the argument, and something he has long been vocal about: "By increasing the crop yield of current agricultural networks, there is hope that food needs can be met while containing the expansion of farming and so sparing natural habitats from destruction. The location of infrastructure, and roads in particular, will play a major role in this."

However, the researchers caution that the channeling of roads into less damaging, more rewarding areas will have to go hand-in-hand with strengthening protection for globally significant habitats such as the remaining forests of the Mekong.

Scientists hope a new approach to planning road infrastructure that could increase crop yield in the Greater Mekong region while limiting environmental destruction will open dialogues between developers and the conservation community.

Conservationists can to appear to oppose nearly all new infrastructure, while developers and their financial backers are often fairly mute on the environmental impact of their proposals. This can lead to a breakdown in communication
Andrew Balmford
A highway cuts across the Yunnan Province of Southwest China, part of the Greater Mekong.

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Teaching in conflict zones

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Hanan Al Hroub

“The role of education for refugee children is not only to teach them to read and write,” said Hanan Al Hroub, “but also to help them deal with what they have experienced”.

Speaking recently at Hughes Hall, part of the University of Cambridge, Ms Al Hroub, who grew up in a Palestinian refugee camp in Bethlehem, remembered an early role-model:

“In 1979, when I was a student in Grade 2, our new teacher introduced herself by saying: ‘My name is Julia, I am from Bethlehem, what is your name?’ As we introduced ourselves she explained the meaning of our names in a way that made us feel very special.”

“She won our hearts. I could not wait to see her the next morning. She was the source of my inspiration. Every time I looked at her I said to myself: I will become like her one day.”

“Many years later when I became a teacher and set foot in a classroom for the very first time I also introduced myself by saying: ‘My name is Hanan, which means affection’. I then explained the meaning of all the children’s names. I hope it made them feel very special too.”

Explaining how she became a teacher, Ms Al Hroub said:

“The spark that set me on the road to becoming a teacher was when my own children developed trauma after witnessing a horrific incident on the way back from school. They became withdrawn, very afraid to go back to school, and very aggressive towards each other. Their academic work also suffered, and there was no professional help available.”

“Feeling very alone, I researched in libraries and bookshops and taught my children at home. A corner of our house became their new classroom. I started playing with my children to help them open up. We used balloons, puppets and role play –anything—to bring out their inner child. Eventually they got over their trauma, and returned to school. From then on I made it my purpose in life to help traumatised children in Palestinian public schools.”

Ms Al Hroub, who teaches primary school pupils at the Samiha Khalil School, outside Ramallah, described the impact of daily conflict on children:

“Here children witness violence first hand, or are exposed to it through news reports and social media. This suffering gets into the classroom and leads to frustration. The atmosphere is not normal. We see the suffering in our students’ eyes every day.”

Her experience of educating her own children at home led her to develop a method of education through play:

“I decided that teachers, like artists, must create an environment that frees the child and their imagination from their daily trauma, and helps them shape them shape it in a loving and beautiful way.”

The constraints, she added, are severe:

“Due to a lack of funding I need to be creative to bring my lessons to life. I have built reading corners in the classroom, and chairs for the students from discarded vegetable boxes. I design games from my sister’s neglected Lego pieces. Mathematics lessons are done with the aid of plastic cups, plates and clothespins. I made a puppet theatre out of a former clotheshorse, and an orchard in the classroom from artificial grass. The only limit is your imagination.”

The outcome, she said, had been very positive. The Ministry of Education in Palestine was now encouraging other schools to follow the same principles. “It should be the first priority to provide a safe, attractive and fun educational environment.”

These lessons, she added, are relevant for the UK too:  “Hundreds of refugee children have landed on these shores. We must remember that these children are scared, alone, and traumatised. The UK government must ensure that these children have a safe, secure and loving environment.”

She reminded the audience that “79% of refugee children have experienced a death in the family, while 45% display symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder.”

Around the world, she concluded, teaching is not as valued as other professions. “But teachers are the real power of the world. It is teachers that light the spark of curiosity. And it is teachers that point and guide the way. It is teachers who take the next generation in their hands and shape it.”

Ms Al Hroub complimented the work carried out by the University of Cambridge's Faculty of Education and the REAL Centre: “The University of Cambridge is helping to shine a light on teachers –something the world needs more than ever before.”

This view was echoed by Philippa Lei, Director of Programmes of the Malala Fund, who in responding to Ms Al Hroub’s lecture said:

“Pauline Rose and the REAL Centre have done some important work showing how girls fall further behind in their education when they are in situations of conflict. The world is not making sure that girls and boys are getting a good quality education when it comes to conflict and emergencies.”

“A large part of that is because people misunderstand what education in emergencies is about. There’s a question of why do children who have fled their countries need to read and write. The thought is that surely that’s not the most important thing in their lives. This doesn’t take into account the impact that education can have on children in terms of restoring that sense of normality, giving them a place of peace, to recover, to grow and make sense of what has happened to them. The Malala Fund is calling governments to realise that education is essential for building peace.”

The Global Teacher Prize is a US $1 million award presented annually to an exceptional teacher who has made an outstanding contribution to their profession.

Awarded by the Varkey Foundation under the patronage of HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE Vice President, Prime Minister, and Emir of Dubai, the prize serves to underline the importance of educators, celebrate their efforts and recognise their impact. A shortlist of 50 teachers has recently been announced for the 2017 prize. The winner will be announced at the Global Education and Skills Forum taking place in Dubai on 18-19 March 2017.

www.educ.cam.ac.uk/centres/real

At a lecture organised by the University of Cambridge's REAL Centre, the winner of the 2016 Global Teacher Prize emphasises the importance of education in conflict zones

79% of refugee children have experienced a death in the family; 45% display symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder.
Hanan Al Hroub
Hanan Al Hroub
Studying education & international development at Cambridge
Cambridge’s Faculty of Education excels in research and teaching relating to the links between education, policy, globalisation and international development. The Faculty offers a BA in Education track in Education, Policy & International Development – and an MPhil programme in Education, Globalisation and International Development. These programmes give students access to leading academics in this area, and excellent career prospects.
 
 

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Mulled wine: a recipe for sustainability?

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Ingredients

1 bottle red wine
75g caster sugar
1 orange
1 vanilla pod, sliced lengthways
1 bay leaf
1 cinnamon stick
1 star anise
4 cloves
½ teaspoon nutmeg
Thumb-sized piece of ginger, sliced

  1. Peel the orange using a vegetable peeler and squeeze the juice
  2. Pour the wine and orange juice into a pan and add the peel and sliced ginger, together with the spices and bay leaf
  3. Heat the mixture, slowly adding the sugar until it has all dissolved.
  4. Just before the mixture boils, turn down the heat and simmer on a low heat for 10 minutes.
  5. Strain the mixture and serve.

To celebrate the festive period, researchers from the Global Food Security initiative did what many offices do in the run-up to Christmas: organised an evening of mulled wine and cheese to bring everyone together. However, there was one difference, as Kirsten Van Fossen, a PhD student at Cambridge’s Institute for Manufacturing (IfM), who organised, the event explains:

“We asked researchers from across the university who are interested in issues of global food security to bring along mulled wine ingredients and to introduce their particular ingredient to the group – where they bought it, where it originates from and its journey to their store cupboard.”

The majority of the ingredients brought along were purchased at local supermarkets, where produce from every corner of the globe is readily available. However, as the students explained, many of the ingredients could be grown at home or in the UK, yet have travelled thousands of miles to reach the supermarket shelves.

Claire Lambe, who is studying for an MPhil in Engineering for Sustainable Development, brought along star anise. “This spice is grown exclusively for mass production in China and Vietnam, yet I found out you could grow it in your own garden in the UK under the right conditions,” she says.

Root ginger, too, can be grown in the UK if it is protected from the frost, says Chris Barton, a fourth year Manufacturing Engineering student at the IfM. “I bought this at Sainsbury’s, though,” he admits. “There’s no identification of the source on it, but the likelihood is that it came from the Tibetan Plateau, about 5,000 miles away.”

Clara Aranda, an Engineering PhD student from the IfM explains that as with many foods, her ingredient, vanilla, is no longer mass produced in its original country of origin. “Vanilla originally comes from Mexico, but after the Spaniards came and distributed it around the world, it now mainly comes from Madagascar.”

While the evening was intended as a relaxed and informal event, the message that underlies it is a serious one about our global food systems, which are coming under increasing strain from as ever-growing global population: mass production of food can drain resources, such as water, and is energy intensive; plant monoculture puts crops at risk of devastating diseases that can wipe out an entire harvest; food is transported all around the globe as consumers expect to be able to buy fresh ingredients all year round – even locally-grown produce can be transported all around the UK to be processed, bagged and then shipped to a local supermarket; and, while some people still starve, other countries – including the UK – face an epidemic of obesity from food saturated with sugars and fats.

“The food system – everything from how food is grown, processed and delivered, to how it is consumed – has become a truly global network,” adds Van Fossen. “But while it’s led to great advances in terms of food availability and strengthening international bonds of trade, it’s come with a cost to the environment and society. We wanted everyone to reflect on that.”

“We still have a lot of work to do to work out the right interplay between local and global food systems,” explains Jacqueline Garget, coordinator of Cambridge Global Food Security. “Tonight’s mulled wine reception is like a microcosm of our strategic research initiative, bringing together researchers from across the university who are interested in building sustainable food systems. We want to provoke everyone to think about the issues we face and to search for potential solutions.”

Nothing quite says ‘Christmas party’ like the smell of mulled wine drifting around an office. It’s an easy drink to make – all of the ingredients can be purchased at your local supermarket. But have you ever wondered where the ingredients come from? Like Santa Claus, many of them have travelled halfway round the world to get here, say students from the Cambridge Global Food Security strategic research initiative.

Mulled wine

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Patients show considerable improvements after treatment for newly-defined movement disorder

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A team of researchers from UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, University of Cambridge and the NIHR Rare Disease Bioresource have identified mutations in a gene, called KMT2B, in 28 patients with dystonia. In most cases, the patients — many of whom were young children who were thought to have a diagnosis of cerebral palsy — were unable to walk.

Remarkably, for some patients, treatment with deep brain stimulation, in which electrical impulses are delivered to a specific brain region involved in movement, either restored or significantly improved independent walking and improved hand and arm movement. In one patient, improvements have been sustained over six years.

Given these observations, the team now suggest that testing for mutations in the gene should form part of standard testing for patients with dystonia, as this is emerging to be one of the commonest genetic causes of childhood-onset dystonia.

The research is published in Nature Genetics.

Dystonia is one of the commonest movement disorders and is thought to affect 70,000 people in the UK alone. It can cause a wide range of disabling symptoms, including painful muscle spasms and abnormal postures, and can affect walking and speech.

Through research testing of patients, the team discovered a region of chromosome 19 that was deleted from the genome of some patients with childhood-onset dystonia. Together with the NIHR Rare Disease Bioresource and international collaborators, the team then identified abnormal genetic changes in genomes from a further 18 patients in one gene, called KMT2B, where affected patients carried a mutated in their DNA.

“Through DNA sequencing, we have identified a new genetic movement disorder that can be treated with deep brain stimulation. This can dramatically improve the lives of children with the condition and enable them to have a wider range of movement with long-lasting effects,” says Dr Manju Kurian, paediatric neurologist at Great Ormond Street Hospital and Wellcome Trust-funded researcher at UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health.

“Our results, though in a relatively small group of patients, show the power of genomic research not only to identify new diseases, but also to reveal possible approaches that will allow other patients to benefit.”

The KMT2B protein is thought to alter the activity of other genes. The team believes that the mutations impair the ability of the KMT2B protein to carry out its normal, crucial role in controlling the expression of genes involved in voluntary movement.

A number of patients were previously thought to have cerebral palsy prior to confirmation of their genetic diagnosis. Such uncertainty could be addressed by looking for KMT2B mutations as part of a diagnostic approach.

Although affected patients have been found to have a mutation in their DNA, this severe condition is rarely inherited from either parent but usually occurs for the first time in the affected child.

“Most patients show a progressive disease course with worsening dystonia over time,” continues Dr Kurian. “Many patients did not show any response to the usual medications that we use for dystonia so we knew we would have to consider other strategies. We know, from our experience with other patients with dystonia, that deep brain stimulation might improve our patient’s symptoms, so were keen to see what response patients would have to this type of treatment.”

“Remarkably nearly all patients who had deep brain stimulation showed considerable improvements. One patient was able to walk independently within two weeks; in five patients, the improvement has lasted for more than three years. It is an astounding result.”

Given the dramatic effects seen in their patients with this newly defined genetic condition, the team propose that referral for assessment of deep brain stimulation should be considered for all patients with a mutation in KMT2B. In the future, the team hopes that, by diagnosing additional patients, the full spectrum of this new condition will be more apparent and patients and their families might see real benefit.

“It is only through the amazing generosity and efforts of patients and their families that we can begin to search for better answers and treatments: we admire their contribution,” says Professor Lucy Raymond, Professor of Medical Genetics and Neurodevelopment at the University of Cambridge. “Through participating in our research, they have helped us to identify patients with KMT2B-related dystonia, meaning we can aim for a more 'precision medicine approach' to target treatment with deep brain stimulation to those likely to benefit: most importantly, we would anticipate improvement in many of those treated.

“The lesson from our study is simple and clear: because confirming this diagnosis has implications for therapy, we should test all patients with suspected genetic dystonia for mutations in KMT2B.”

Reference
Meyer E, Carss KJ, Rankin J et al. Mutations in the Histone Methyltransferase Gene, KMT2B Cause Early Onset Dystonia. Nature Genetics; 19 Dec 2016

DNA sequencing has defined a new genetic disorder that affects movement, enabling patients with dystonia — a disabling condition that affects voluntary movement — to be targeted for treatment that brings remarkable improvements, including restoring independent walking.

We can [now] aim for a more 'precision medicine approach' to target treatment with deep brain stimulation to those likely to benefit: most importantly, we would anticipate improvement in many of those treated
Lucy Raymond
Alineando secuencias (1)

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The size of Spider-Man’s feet and what the Romans actually did for us: 24 things we learned this year

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To read the complete list, which contains everything from baboons to wolves, chicken korma to scones, artificial intelligence to archaeology, and the Clangers to Peter Pan, visit our Medium page.

To find out more about how Cambridge’s ideas and innovations have shaped the world over the past 800 years, see “Dear World… Yours, Cambridge”.

It’s been a very busy year at the University of Cambridge. If you don’t have time to read about all of our discoveries this year, then we've put together just a few of our personal highlights.

Spiderman

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‘Glue’ that makes plant cell walls strong could hold the key to wooden skyscrapers

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The two most common large molecules – or ‘polymers’ – found on Earth are cellulose and xylan, both of which are found in the cell walls of materials such as wood and straw. They play a key role in determining the strength of materials and how easily they can be digested.

For some time, scientists have known that these two polymers must somehow stick together to allow the formation of strong plant walls, but how this occurs has, until now, remained a mystery: xylan is a long, winding polymer with so-called ‘decorations’ of other sugars and molecules attached, so how could this adhere to the thick, rod-like cellulose molecules?

“We knew the answer must be elegant and simple,” explains Professor Paul Dupree from the Department of Biochemistry at the University of Cambridge, who led the research. “And in fact, it was. What we found was that cellulose induces xylan to untwist itself and straighten out, allowing it to attach itself to the cellulose molecule. It then acts as a kind of ‘glue’ that can protect cellulose or bind the molecules together, making very strong structures.”

The finding was made possible due to an unexpected discovery several years ago in Arabidopsis, a small flowering plant related to cabbage and mustard. Professor Dupree and colleagues showed that the decorations on xylan can only occur on alternate sugar molecules within the polymer – in effect meaning that the decorations only appear on one side of xylan. This led the team of researchers to survey other plants in the Cambridge University Botanic Garden and discover that the phenomenon appears to occur in all plants, meaning it must have evolved in ancient times, and must be important.

To explore this in more detail, they turned to an imaging technique known as solid state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR), which is based on the same physics as hospital MRI scanners, but can reveal structure at the nanoscale. However, while ssNMR can image carbon, it requires a particular heavy isotope of carbon, carbon-13. This meant that the team had to grow their plants in an atmosphere enriched with a special form of carbon dioxide – carbon-13 dioxide.

Professor Ray Dupree – Paul Dupree’s father, and a co-author on the paper – supervised the work at the University of Warwick’s ssNMR laboratory. “By studying these molecules, which are over 10,000 times narrower than the width of a human hair, we could see for the first time how cellulose and xylan slot together and why this makes for such strong cell walls.”

Understanding how cellulose and xylan fit together could have a dramatic effect on industries as diverse as biofuels, paper production and agriculture, according to Paul Dupree.

“One of the biggest barriers to ‘digesting’ plants – whether that’s for use as biofuels or as animal feed, for example – has been breaking down the tough cellular walls,” he says. “Take paper production – enormous amounts of energy are required for this process. A better understanding of the relationship between cellulose and xylan could help us vastly reduce the amount of energy required for such processes.”

But just as this could improve how easily materials can be broken down, the discovery may also help them create stronger materials, he says. There are already plans to build houses in the UK more sustainably using wood, and Paul Dupree is involved in the Centre for Natural Material Innovation at the University of Cambridge, which is looking at whether buildings as tall as skyscrapers could be built using modified wood.

The research was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC).

Reference
Simmons, TJ et al. Folding of xylan onto cellulose fibrils in plant cell walls revealed by solid-state NMR. Nature Communications; Date; DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13902

Molecules 10,000 times narrower than the width of a human hair could hold the key to making possible wooden skyscrapers and more energy-efficient paper production, according to research published today in the journal Nature Communications. The study, led by a father and son team at the Universities of Warwick and Cambridge, solves a long-standing mystery of how key sugars in cells bind to form strong, indigestible materials.

We knew the answer must be elegant and simple. And in fact, it was
Paul Dupree
Vanishing point

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Cambridge study named as People’s Choice for Science magazine’s ‘Breakthrough of the Year 2016’

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The work, led by Professor Magdalena Zernicka-Goetz from the Department of Physiology, Development and Neuroscience at the University of Cambridge, was the focus of parallel publications earlier this year in the journals Nature Cell Biology and Nature.

Professor Zernicka-Goetz and colleagues developed a new technique that allows embryos to develop in vitro, in the absence of maternal tissue, beyond the implantation stage (when the embryo would normally implant into the womb). This will allow researchers to analyse for the first time key stages of human embryo development up to 13 days after fertilisation. The technique could open up new avenues of research aimed at helping improve the chances of success of IVF.

“It’s a wonderful honour to have been given such public recognition for our work,” says Professor Zernicka-Goetz, whose work was funded by Wellcome. “It’s a natural human instinct to be curious about where we come from, but until now, technical hurdles have meant there’s been a huge gap in our understanding of how embryos develop. We hope that our technique will crack open this ‘black box’ and allow us to learn more about our development.”

Dr Marta Shahbazi, one of the co-first authors of the Nature Cell Biology paper, also from Cambridge, adds: “In the same year where scientists have found evidence of gravitational waves, it’s amazing that the public has chosen our work as the most important scientific breakthrough. While our study will help satisfy our scientific curiosity, it is likely to help us better understand what happens in miscarriage and why the success rates for IVF are so low.”

The work builds on research pioneered by Professor Sir Robert Edwards, for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine in 2010. Professor Edwards developed the technique known as in vitro fertilisation (IVF), demonstrating that it was possible to fertilise an egg and culture it in the laboratory for the first six days of development. His work led to the first ever 'test tube baby', Louise Brown.

The award has been welcomed by Dr Jim Smith, Director of Science at Wellcome: “I’m really pleased to see Magda’s fantastic work recognised by Science, and we send our warmest congratulations to her and her team. In almost doubling the time we can culture human embryos in the lab, she has created completely new opportunities for developmental biologists to understand how we develop. It’s a great achievement, and Wellcome is proud to have supported her ground-breaking work.”

Science - Breakthrough of the Year 2016

Cambridge research that will enable scientists to grow and study embryos in the lab for almost two weeks has been named as the People’s Choice for Science magazine’s ‘Breakthrough of the Year 2016’

It’s a natural human instinct to be curious about where we come from, but until now, technical hurdles have meant there’s been a huge gap in our understanding of how embryos develop
Magdalena Zernicka-Goetz
Imaging a human embryo in the absence of maternal tissues - day 10 (left) and day 11 (right)

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Languages still a major barrier to global science, new research finds

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English is now considered the common language, or 'lingua franca', of global science. All major scientific journals seemingly publish in English, despite the fact that their pages contain research from across the globe.

However, a new study suggests that over a third of new scientific reports are published in languages other than English, which can result in these findings being overlooked - contributing to biases in our understanding.

As well as the international community missing important science, language hinders new findings getting through to practitioners in the field say researchers from the University of Cambridge.

They argue that whenever science is only published in one language, including solely in English, barriers to the transfer of knowledge are created.

The Cambridge researchers call on scientific journals to publish basic summaries of a study's key findings in multiple languages, and universities and funding bodies to encourage translations as part of their 'outreach' evaluation criteria.

"While we recognise the importance of a lingua franca, and the contribution of English to science, the scientific community should not assume that all important information is published in English," says Dr Tatsuya Amano from Cambridge's Department of Zoology.

"Language barriers continue to impede the global compilation and application of scientific knowledge."

The researchers point out an imbalance in knowledge transfer in countries where English is not the mother tongue: "much scientific knowledge that has originated there and elsewhere is available only in English and not in their local languages."

This is a particular problem in subjects where both local expertise and implementation is vital - such as environmental sciences.

As part of the study, published today in the journal PLOS Biology, those in charge of Spain's protected natural areas were surveyed. Over half the respondents identified language as an obstacle to using the latest science for habitat management.

The Cambridge team also conducted a litmus test of language use in science. They surveyed the web platform Google Scholar - one of the largest public repositories of scientific documents - in a total of 16 languages for studies relating to biodiversity conservation published during a single year, 2014.

Of the over 75,000 documents, including journal articles, books and theses, some 35.6% were not in English. Of these, the majority was in Spanish (12.6%) or Portuguese (10.3%). Simplified Chinese made up 6%, and 3% were in French.

The researchers also found thousands of newly published conservation science documents in other languages, including several hundred each in Italian, German, Japanese, Korean and Swedish.

Random sampling showed that, on average, only around half of non-English documents also included titles or abstracts in English. This means that around 13,000 documents on conservation science published in 2014 are unsearchable using English keywords.

This can result in sweeps of current scientific knowledge - known as 'systematic reviews' - being biased towards evidence published in English, say the researchers. This, in turn, may lead to over-representation of results considered positive or 'statistically significant', and these are more likely to appear in English language journals deemed 'high-impact'.

In addition, information on areas specific to countries where English is not the mother tongue can be overlooked when searching only in English.

For environmental science, this means important knowledge relating to local species, habitats and ecosystems - but also applies to diseases and medical sciences. For example, documents reporting the infection of pigs with avian flu in China initially went unnoticed by international communities, including the WHO and the UN, due to publication in Chinese-language journals.

"Scientific knowledge generated in the field by non-native English speakers is inevitably under-represented, particularly in the dominant English-language academic journals. This potentially renders local and indigenous knowledge unavailable in English," says lead author Amano.

"The real problem of language barriers in science is that few people have tried to solve it. Native English speakers tend to assume that all the important information is available in English. But this is not true, as we show in our study.

"On the other hand, non-native English speakers, like myself, tend to think carrying out research in English is the first priority, often ending up ignoring non-English science and its communication.

"I believe the scientific community needs to start seriously tackling this issue."

Amano and colleagues say that, when conducting systematic reviews or developing databases at a global scale, speakers of a wide range of languages should be included in the discussion: "at least Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese and French, which, in theory, cover the vast majority of non-English scientific documents."

The website conservationevidence.com, a repository for conservation science developed at Cambridge by some of the authors, has also established an international panel to extract the best non-English language papers, including Portuguese, Spanish and Chinese.

"Journals, funders, authors and institutions should be encouraged to supply translations of a summary of a scientific publication - regardless of the language it is originally published in," says Amano. The authors of the new study have provided a summary in Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese and French as well as Japanese.

"While outreach activities have recently been advocated in science, it is rare for such activities to involve communication across language barriers."

The researchers suggest efforts to translate should be evaluated in a similar way to other outreach activities such as public engagement, particularly if the science covers issues at a global scale or regions where English is not the mother tongue.

Adds Amano: "We should see this as an opportunity as well as a challenge. Overcoming language barriers can help us achieve less biased knowledge and enhance the application of science globally."

Over a third of new conservation science documents published annually are in non-English languages, despite assumption of English as scientific ‘lingua franca’. Researchers find examples of important science missed at international level, and practitioners struggling to access new knowledge, as a result of language barriers.

Language barriers continue to impede the global compilation and application of scientific knowledge
Tatsuya Amano
Atypical welcome

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University people recognised in 2017 New Year Honours list

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Ottoline Leyser (above left) is Director of the Sainsbury Laboratory. She becomes a Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire (DBE) for services to Plant Science, Science in Society and Equality and Diversity in Science.

Dame Ottoline’s research aims to understand how plants adjust their growth and development to suit the environmental conditions in which they are growing. In particular, she is studying how plants change the number of shoot branches they produce depending on factors such as nutrient supply and damage to the main shoot. She is particularly interested in the roles and mechanisms of action of plant hormones such as auxin. She is a Fellow of Clare College.

“This is a huge honour,” said Dame Ottoline. “It’s so uplifting that things I really care about can be celebrated in this extraordinary way. Science has such a lot to offer the world, which makes it really important that science is open to all, so that everyone can contribute to the process and benefit from the results.”

Shankar Balasubramanian (above right) is Herchel Smith Professor of Medicinal Chemistry in the Department of Chemistry the University of Cambridge, Senior Group Leader at the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Institute and Fellow of Trinity College. He has been named a Knight Bachelor for services to science and medicine. He co-invented next generation sequencing which has provided the most transformative change in biology and medicine for several decades, and has led to the $1000 dollar human genome. He has also made important contributions to four-stranded DNA, known as G-quadruplexes, and their role in cancer.

“It is a great honour for me and a wonderful acknowledgement of the research and I have carried out in Cambridge with my co-workers and collaborators over the past two decades,” said Sir Shankar. “I was particularly pleased to see recognition of our basic science and its impact on medicine, as I am jointly appointed between the Departments of Chemistry and Medicine.”

Professor John Pyle, Head of the Department of Chemistry, is appointed CBE for services to Atmospheric Chemistry and Environmental Science. Professor Pyle’s research uses of state-of-the-art numerical models, run on supercomputers, to study the processes controlling the present state of the atmosphere and its evolution. He is a Fellow of St Catharine’s College.

Professor John Spencer, Bye Fellow in Law at Murray Edwards College and Professor Emeritus of Law, is also appointed CBE for services to the Reform of Law Concerning Child Witnesses. His interests include criminal law, criminal evidence, comparative criminal law, and the law of tort. He has been involved in a great many of projects for law reform, including as a Consultant to the Law Commission on a project to reform the hearsay rule in 1995; as a member of a committee of experts set up by the European Commission to study fraud on the Community finances, and as a member of the Home Office group that drafted “Achieving Best Evidence in Criminal Proceedings” (1999-2001). He was also a consultant to the Auld Review of Criminal Courts in 2001.

Four distinguished members of the University of Cambridge have been named in the 2017 New Year Honours list, announced today. Professor Ottoline Leyser, Professor Shankar Balasubramanian, Professor John Pyle and Professor John Spencer have all been recognised for their contributions to society.

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Physical activity, even in small amounts, benefits both physical and psychological well-being

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A new study, based on reports from more than 10,000 individuals, has found that physical activity, whether or not it is classified as exercise, can have a positive effect on emotional well-being. The results, by researchers from the University of Cambridge and the University of Essex, are reported in the journal PLOS ONE, and demonstrate how smartphones can be used to collect large-scale data to examine psychological, behavioural and health-related phenomena as they occur in everyday life.

Using data gathered from users of a mood tracking app for Android phones, the researchers found that modest levels of physical activity – even if it couldn’t be classified as exercise – can increase a person’s reported emotional well-being, regardless of their baseline level of happiness. They also found that people reported being happier when they were physically active.

Earlier studies in this area have focused on the relationship between exercise and happiness, with mixed results. Some studies have found that happier people report exercising more, while others have found no relationship between happiness and exercise. Much of this past research has relied solely on retrospective self-reports, on data collected at only one time period, and on small samples.

For the new study, data on physical activity was passively gathered from smartphone accelerometers, and participants were also sent a short survey at two random intervals throughout the day which asked questions about their emotional state. Users reported their emotional state on a grid, based on how positive or negative, and how energetic or sleepy, they were feeling. Users were also asked a handful of questions about how their mood compared to normal.

The activity data was then averaged over the course of the day, so while the researchers could not pinpoint what participants were doing at any given time, they found that participants who had higher levels of activity throughout the day reported a more positive emotional state.

“Our data show that happy people are more active in general,” said the paper’s senior author Dr Jason Rentfrow, from Cambridge’s Department of Psychology and a Fellow of Fitzwilliam College. “However, our analyses also indicated that periods of physical activity led to increased positive mood, regardless of individuals’ baseline happiness. There have been many studies about the positive psychological effects of exercise, but what we’ve found is that in order to be happier, you don’t have to go out and run a marathon – all you’ve really got to do is periodically engage in slight physical activity throughout the day.”

“Most of us don’t keep track of all of our movements during the day,” said study co-author Dr Gillian Sandstrom from the Department of Psychology at the University of Essex. “A person might track whether they went for a walk or went to the gym, but when asked, most of them probably wouldn’t remember walking from the desk to the photocopier, or from the car to the office door.”

“This study shows how mobile and wearable technology really can allow social psychologists to perform large longitudinal studies as well as open a direct and permanent connection with the users for advice and intervention,” said study co-author Professor Cecilia Mascolo from Cambridge’s Computer Laboratory.

The research was supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Research Council’s UBhave (Ubiquitous and Social Computing for Positive Behaviour Change) project.

Reference:
Lathia, N. Sandstrom, G.M., Mascolo, C., & Rentfrow, P.J. ‘Happier people live more active lives: Using smartphones to link happiness and physical activity.’ PLOS ONE (2016). http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0160589

The largest-ever smartphone-based study examining the relationship between physical activity and happiness has found that even minimal levels of activity can have a positive effect on happiness. 

In order to be happier, you don’t have to go out and run a marathon.
Jason Rentfrow
Walking

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Graduate, get a job, make a difference

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Sophie Dundovic
Sophie Dundovic, St John's College, BA (2013) Mathematics, Social Anthropology 
 
Since graduating, I have co-founded Parasym Health, a medical device company that uses bioelectric medicine to treat chronic conditions such as Tinnitus and Depression. We are operating in a relatively new and growing market which means we need to be able to adapt quickly. I’m often learning new skills or troubleshooting problems that I have never come across before. As a company we are motivated by positive feedback from users and our aim is to grow the company and to have a positive impact on the lives of many more people.
 
Applying to Cambridge
 
I remember walking around St John's on a cold December evening after being interviewed. I was in awe of the surroundings but the support provided was excellent throughout the application process and this continued throughout my time at the College. Back then I didn't know anyone who had studied at Cambridge, so I wasn’t sure what to expect, but I quickly made friends both on my course and in the University Athletic Club.
 
What Cambridge did for me
 
My time at Cambridge was formative in many ways. The teaching environment encourages independent thinking and that has been very important for me in my professional life. Particularly in the early stages of a company, business decisions can have critical outcomes and sometimes you need to do things that go against the conventional wisdom. Being able to question things and not being afraid to make bold suggestions is important.
 
What I’m doing now is very different to the career I imagined when I was 17. At Cambridge I met a lot of talented, motivated and interesting people, many of whom have become great friends. Conversations with these people challenged my views about what was possible. Some of the courses I took as an undergraduate also dramatically developed my way of thinking, and I was very fortunate in having the opportunity to live in Germany for a year as part of a reciprocal exchange between Cambridge and Heidelberg University. I was able to pursue very specific areas of interest that year, as well as learning a language, which was very rewarding. It was then that I started to think seriously about my career path.
 
My motivation
 
While I think I've always been motivated by social aims, the academic freedom at Cambridge allowed me to explore exactly what that meant and how I might apply it in work. Exposure to the research environment has also allowed me to better understand the objectives of some of the different stakeholders that we deal with as a company. We often receive emails from patients telling us that our products have really improved their quality of life and that provides us with plenty of motivation to keep improving what we are doing.

Cambridge graduates enter a wide range of careers but making a difference tops their career wish lists. In this series, inspiring graduates from the last three years describe Cambridge, their current work and their determination to give back.

At Cambridge I met a lot of talented, motivated and interesting people. Conversations challenged my views about what was possible.
Sophie Dundovic
Sophie Dundovic

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New report on macro-economic impact of Brexit questions Treasury forecasts

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The economists have also been working with lawyers at the CBR to explore the possible impact of Brexit. They warn that the UK is in danger of remaining a low wage, low skill country unless it can create the conditions for a reorientation of its economic model post-Brexit.  

In a new podcast for the CBR, based at the Cambridge Judge Business School, Graham Gudgin, one of the authors of the new report: The Macro-Economic Impact of Brexit: Using the CBR Macro-Economic Model of the UK Economy (UKMOD), and Simon Deakin, Director of the CBR and Professor of Law at the University of Cambridge, discuss how the UK economy is likely to perform in 2017 and what would be the best model for leaving the EU.

Gudgin says that, according to The Treasury, we should have been in recession by now, but we are not. "Things are maybe a bit delayed but the whole succession of investment announcements we have had from Nissan, Microsoft and others suggests that companies are taking a much more sanguine view of this than the Treasury and others have suggested," he says.

Possible options: from the EEA to bespoke trade deals

Deakin explains the four possible options the UK government could pursue for leaving the EU: re-joining (or remaining in) the EEA (European Economic Area); becoming a member of the EU’s customs union; undertaking a series of bespoke trade deals, such as Switzerland has; or, if none of the above apply, defaulting to the rules of the World Trade Organization. The first two of these would mean accepting the free movement of persons, which the current policy of the British government appears to rule out.

Gudgin suggests that, since the policy of migration control is likely to be maintained, the UK will try to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU, perhaps along the lines of the recent EU-Canada agreement. Some argue that this could take a decade or more to achieve, but Gudgin takes the view that since we are starting from an existing free-trade situation, the task is much easier.

No quick agreement is however likely and whether the EU and the UK can negotiate transitional arrangements to bridge that gap remains to be seen. Any new trade deal will also have to be conducted within the framework of WTO rules, says Gudgin, which will add to the complexity of the negotiations.

Deakin explains: “Nearly every European country is either in the single market or in the customs union. For example, Norway, via the EEA, is in the single market but not the customs union; Turkey is in the customs union but not the single market.  There are a number of other options. Switzerland is not part of the European Economic Area, but has a number of bilateral trade deals with the EU.

"These are conditional on Switzerland allowing free movement of labour (which a recent Swiss referendum vetoed) and capital. Countries in the single market, including those in the EEA, must conform to EU rules and regulations regarding product standards, labour laws and environmental protection, among other things.

"Customs union membership implies internal free trade and a single external tariff, but countries outside the EU which are in that position, such as Turkey, cannot make their own trade deals with third countries. If we went for that option post-Brexit, we would not be bound by all the rules of the single market but we couldn’t do our own trade deals with third countries.     

The WTO also have rules on how migrant workers may be treated in host states which are not that dissimilar to those operating in the EU’s single market

Simon Deakin

“If we were in the EEA we couldn’t avoid rules on free movement of labour or capital. You either accept the four freedoms, the movement of goods, services, people and capital over borders, or you don’t; you can’t cherry pick. The UK could try for a Swiss style option where you try to have free movement but then modify it somewhat, but the Swiss have had to sign up to most aspects of free movement in order to get access to the single market. To get around the rules of free movement of labour and capital it is highly likely the UK would have to be outside the EEA.

"We could still sign up to the customs union, Turkey isn’t subject to the rules on free movement of labour, for example, nor is the EU required to accept free movement of persons from Turkey into the EU, but then we wouldn’t have the freedom to do trade deals with third countries, which the UK has said it wants to have; that is why the International Trade Department was brought back.

“WTO rules do not require member states to accept free movement of labour, they do, however, contain some rules on issues like state aids, to prevent distortions of international trade. The WTO also have rules on how migrant workers may be treated in host states which are not that dissimilar to those operating in the EU’s single market, and are highly contentious for the same reasons. WTO rules on these issues are generally not as strict as EU laws and do not form part of UK domestic law. International law obligations cannot be enforced in the same way as EU laws can be. However, the WTO option is not a blank slate for the UK.” 

Trade deal within two years – unlikely

Deakin goes on to say that as things stand there is uncertainty over what Brexit might mean, even if it is possible to identify some of the main features of each of the principal options: “Lawyers can say what the general framework is for each of these four options, EEA, customs union, Swiss option, WTO, but until we know more about how the government will wish to conduct its negotiations with the EU and about the EU’s position going forward it is hard to make predictions. There are many issues we don’t have a clear answer to.

“We can sketch out broadly what happens for each of these main options but I think there is a case for more research to be done. It is most unlikely that there will be a trade deal negotiated within two years of triggering Article 50, and as the process of negotiation and deliberation unfolds new issues will arise. These may crop up at sector level, particular industries may have issues that need to be worked through, and individual companies may raise points about their position and if they receive guarantees from government there will be issues of state aids to consider under both EU and WTO law. At the moment we just don’t have a good set of answers to these questions.”

Deakin says a transitional agreement with the EU would need to be a one-off bespoke arrangement as there is no provision for such an agreement within EU treaties: “We are bound by EU law until we leave, we are bound by international law to maintain the treaties that we have signed up to until we withdraw from them. Until the European Communities Act is repealed we must apply EU law domestically and even after the so called Great Repeal Act, which the government has promised to bring in, is implemented, many of the same provisions will be replicated within UK law.

Transitional agreement?

“There is talk of a so-called transitional agreement and that could involve staying in the EEA, while things are worked out, but there is no obligation on the side of the EU to offer us a transitional deal.  This would have to be a bespoke arrangement as it is not provided for at the moment under the EU treaties. It remains to be seen if that sort of soft landing is possible, let’s see what is put on the table after negotiations between the UK and the EU begin. Whatever happens, we need to understand the institutional impact of Brexit in order to get a better understanding of what its economic effects will be.

“We do need independent research to be carried out on this question because so far most of the research that has been done on this has been by one or other side of the Brexit argument. The government has its own researchers in the civil service and of course this is objective, high quality research; the OBR is doing independent economic forecasting. However, there is a public demand for independent, non-partisan research, conducted outside government and the political arena. Thus there is an important role for University-based research; this should feed into the process of deliberation as Brexit unfolds”.

We have looked very carefully at what the Treasury has said about this and we find its work very flawed and very partisan

Graham Gudgin

Gudgin agrees with Deakin that better research and economic forecasting models are needed. He thinks that in reality the only option for the UK to leave the EU, other than the WTO fall-back, is under the terms of the so called Canadian model.

“There are probably only two practical options. One is a free trade agreement along the lines of the one Canada has just signed, or else no agreement on trade in which case you fall back on WTO rules. The impact of both of those is pretty uncertain. We have looked very carefully at what the Treasury has said about this and we find its work very flawed and very partisan. It is not objective. I agree with Deakin that we need some more objective economic work on this, the whole debate has been coloured by a lot of hyperbolic discussion.

The Treasury: four quarters of recession?

“The Treasury said there would be four quarters of recession, we have had six months since the Brexit vote, we should have been in recession by now, but we are not. Things are maybe a bit delayed but the whole succession of investment announcements we have had from Nissan, Microsoft and others suggests that companies are taking a much more sanguine view of this than the Treasury and others have suggested.

“We have looked at the Nissan deal in terms of what degree of currency depreciation you would need to offset the 10 per cent tariff that motor manufacturers could face under WTO rules, and the answer to us is that it looks like a 15 per cent depreciation of sterling would offset a 10 per cent tariff. We have already had a 12 per cent depreciation so we are pretty well there. This may have been what the government was relying upon: it is the currency depreciation that bridges that gap."

Gudgin says that the EU has not been very good at agreeing free trade deals with third countries: “Theresa May has said very clearly that there will be control over migration and she rightly recognises that was the key point in the referendum. The EEA and Swiss bilateral treaties all depend on free movement of labour. It shows just how difficult even the Swiss approach is.

"The Canadian model is a free trade agreement which any country can have with the EU, but historically the EU has not been good at having free trade agreements with others. It doesn’t have a free trade agreement with China or the US, and some people such as the Economists For Brexit see the EU as being a highly protectionist organisation. If the EU has a free trade agreement with Canada, good heavens, they surely can have one with the UK.”

Gudgin explains these predictions in the podcast:

  • “2017 won’t be a great year but growth of GDP will be between 1.0 and 1.5 per cent rather than the 2 per cent it would have been without Brexit. It could even be 2 per cent but we don’t yet really know much about company investment intentions. GDP growth is slowing but will not be too bad.
  • "The sterling depreciation of 10 to 12 per cent will mean inflation will rise to about 3 per cent by the end of 2017. It will be higher than it has been for some years. The big question is will inflation get out of hand and we don’t think it will. Remember most countries have been trying to increase their inflation up to 2 per cent to get their exchange rates down. The UK has done it in one bound.
  • "The UKMOD equations tell us wages will start to rise as prices rise. We are pretty close to full employment, so workers have bargaining power. The Bank of England published its forecast for wages recently and we agree wages will rise to something like 3 per cent by the end of 2017."

The above text was originally posted as a blog on the Judge Business School website. 

Economists at the Centre for Business Research (CBR) have challenged the assumptions of the Treasury in their new forecast for the UK economy and the impact of Brexit in 2017.

There is a public demand for independent, non-partisan research, conducted outside government and the political arena. There is an important role for University-based research; this should feed into the process of deliberation as Brexit unfolds
Simon Deakin

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Yes

Opinion: Being society's critic & conscience

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The Higher Education and Research Bill, once enacted, will be the most important statute affecting English universities for a generation. But, coming as it does in a period of popular scepticism about expertise, there is a risk that the legislation will miss a significant opportunity. 
 
The recent debates in Parliament have paid little attention to the question of what a university is for. To the extent that it has been considered at all, the answer has been assumed to be confined to teaching and research. Indeed, the text of the Bill suggests that this is also the sum total of what the Government believes universities to do: in short, matters which can be conveniently assessed by the teaching and research excellence frameworks. 
 
But, bearing in mind that one of the key aims of the Bill is to open up higher education to new providers, it is vital that Parliament gives more careful consideration to the issue of what kinds of institutions merit being given degree-awarding powers. 
 
While education and research are both vital components, there is more to a university than this. The additional element relates to outward-facing public engagement and discussion. In the wake of the denigration of the views of “experts” by certain supporters of the Trump and Brexit campaigns, the need for universities, and those who work in them, to challenge and criticise publicly is more important than ever. 
 
An important attempt to define the essence of a university has already been undertaken in legislation in New Zealand. Its 1989 Education Act (section 162(4)(a)) lists five characteristics that an institution must possess before it can be recognised as a university. As well as those relating to teaching and research, the fifth requires the institution to accept “a role as critic and conscience of society”. 
 
I believe that very similar wording should be incorporated into English law. Concern has been expressed in the sector and in the debates about the Bill that it will infringe institutional autonomy and interfere with academic freedom. Although the minister, Jo Johnson, has insisted that the concerns are misplaced, some scepticism remains. A significant and simple way of responding to it would be to recognise the legal responsibility of a university to act as critic and conscience of society. 
 
This would not involve the imposition of any legally enforceable duties. Instead, it would acknowledge the justifiable expectation of the state that universities should make a vital contribution to society.
 
Academics already have a responsibility to speak to correct error and prejudice, whether it is the scientist rebutting climate-change scepticism, the classicist challenging unfounded interpretations of ancient history or the lawyer correcting media misunderstanding of the implications of a judicial decision about the royal prerogative and parliamentary sovereignty. And, with the prevalence of social media, this responsibility could not be easier to fulfil. 
 
But a “critic and conscience” clause would mean that institutions must encourage those working in them to engage in public discussion and embrace the freedom to develop new ideas, test received wisdom and examine controversial and unpopular positions. It would also oblige universities to support staff if they were subject to illegitimate criticism for doing so. 
 
Further, although the recent threat of UK researchers being gagged by the Government’s adoption of an anti-lobbying clause has passed, that possibility could not have been seriously contemplated in the first place had there been a “critic and conscience” clause in legislation, since the responsibility of researchers to speak out about the implications of research for society would have trumped any possibility of their being silenced under the guise of anti-lobbying. 
 
Crucially, such a clause would also mean that new higher education providers would need to acknowledge explicitly their external-facing responsibilities. Failure to ensure that all new providers worthy of the name are outward-looking would be to waste this once-in-a-generation opportunity to put the essence of the university on a statutory footing.
 
 
This article was originally published by Times Higher Education on 5th January 2017.

Universities are about more than research and teaching, they should also act as society’s critic and conscience, says Graham Virgo, Pro-vice-chancellor for Education and Professor of English Private Law.

The need for universities, and those who work in them, to challenge and criticise publicly is more important than ever
Professor Graham Virgo
Darwin Lecture Series

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Mediterranean diet may protect your brain in old age, new finding suggests

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Amid the contention about diets and detoxes, sugar and fats, there is at least general agreement that a Mediterranean diet – fruit, vegetables, olive oil, grains, fish – is a good thing. Now, a new study based on brain imaging in over 400 people seems to show that we have even more reason to celebrate this diet and, more importantly, to stick to it. The researchers found that over a three-year period – from the age of 73 to 76 – adherence to a Mediterranean diet is associated with a reduction in the inevitable loss of brain volume that occurs with age.

The difference in volume loss associated with the diet is not large – about 2.5ml (half a teaspoon) – and it only accounts for a very small fraction of overall volume variability. But, who’s to say what you might achieve with that extra half teaspoon of brain? If these results prove reliable, there is surely an incentive to stock up on family-sized bottles of olive oil.

We already have evidence that the Mediterranean diet, and particularly higher fish and lower meat consumption, is associated with increased brain size. But it’s hard to interpret associations between lifestyle and the brain because a causal relationship is equally credible in both directions. That is to say, if I eat healthily and have a big brain, it might be that my diet is good for my brain or my big brain is good at helping me maintain my diet. Or there may be something that I haven’t measured, something that influences my brain and my diet separately. For example, if I live a comfortable, affluent, stress-free life perhaps this is simultaneously good for my brain and facilitates my healthy diet. If so, finding a healthy association between diet and a big brain does not mean that they are directly related.

The brain inevitably shrinks with age.gmstockstudio/Shutterstock.com

These are critical considerations. Citing evidence to support lifestyle changes demands that one knows the precise lifestyle changes needed and what the precise benefits may be. This is why randomised control studies are so appealing. If you have two well-matched groups, subject them two controlled dietary interventions, and do a before and after analysis, you are on firmer ground when asserting that the dietary intervention has had a direct role in producing the changes.

While the researchers in this latest study did not carry out a randomised trial, however, they have nevertheless provided important insights by gathering repeat data, allowing them to compare brain size not in terms of absolute values but of changes across time.

At age 70, participants gave a detailed report on their dietary habits. On this basis, they could be characterised as “high” and “low” in their adherence to a Mediterranean diet. Three years later, they had a baseline brain scan and, a further three years afterwards, brain changes from this baseline were assessed with a second brain scan, so every participant served as their own control. This is a powerful approach and, as well as using the initial scans to confirm that brain volume is indeed greater in people who follow the Mediterranean diet more closely, they determined that, between the ages of 73 and 76 years, there was a greater loss of brain volume for those with low adherence to the diet. This remained significant when taking into account a number of highly relevant factors relating to age, sex, health, body weight, education and aspects of psychological functions.

Interpret with caution

These findings are consistent with the heartening possibility that the right diet has a genuine impact on brain tissue loss. But the authors are cautious, and rightly so. To begin with, their results are not entirely consistent with previous studies of the diet’s effects on the brain. They failed to find, for example, previously-observed effects of higher fish and lower meat consumption. It becomes hard to know whether it is the diet as a whole or specific components of it that could exert the positive effect on brain volume.

The analysis also shows that cognitive function did not significantly differ across the diet styles, raising the question of just how useful it might be to alter brain loss at this scale.

Also, as the researchers acknowledge, they carried out several statistical tests looking for significant associations – ones that have a low p-value (the probablility of finding this difference when there is not a true difference in brain size) – and from this they found the reduction in brain loss. But if you take all of these searches into account, picking out a significant association (brain volume) from non-significant ones (for example, a lack of change to the volume of grey matter), you increase your chances of accidentally attributing significance to something that occurs just by chance.

Although the authors have made nice attempts in their design and analysis in ruling out potentially complicating factors, there is still necessarily an ambiguity over cause and effect here. They previously showed in another study that an apparent relationship between Mediterranean diet and later-life cognitive functions could actually be accounted for by childhood IQ.

While the current analysis ruled out a similar explanatory role of a more constrained IQ measure and of a set of tests of mental function, we must bear in mind the possibility that there are other factors, unaccounted for here, that could separately relate to dietary adherence and brain volume and would therefore produce an illusion of a dietary influence on brain. For example, it’s not clear whether excessive alcohol consumption might associate with a non-Mediterranean diet. Or perhaps levels of physical activity could also play a part.

But, at the same time, there are reasons why this finding – that adherence to a Mediterranean diet results in less brain loss in the elderly – may be even stronger than the numbers show. Participants were split according to the general style of their diet. So some in the high and low diet groups would actually have been quite near the mid-point and so less likely to show strong effects. One might imagine that, if you took two groups who more purely exemplified the Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean diets, there could be even bigger effects on brain volume. We shall see. In any case, keep eating the legumes. Even if it turns out that the Mediterranean diet doesn’t stop your brain from shrinking, there are still plenty of other benefits to be had.

The Conversation

Paul Fletcher, Bernard Wolfe Professor of Health Neuroscience, University of Cambridge

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Could a Mediterranean diet keep your brain young? That is the tantalising finding from a study out this week. Writing on The Conversation website, Professor Paul Fletcher from the Department of Psychiatry investigates the findings.

Vegetable and fruits

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Crohn’s disease risk and prognosis determined by different genes, study finds

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Crohn’s disease is one of a number of chronic ‘complex’ diseases for which there is no single gene that causes the disease. In fact, to date around 170 common genetic variants have been identified that each increase the risk of an individual developing the disease. The conventional wisdom has been that there exists a ‘tipping point’: if someone has enough of these genes, they become very likely to develop the disease – and the more of the variants they carry, the more the severe the disease will then be.

However, in a study published today in Nature Genetics, a team of researchers led by the University of Cambridge has shown that this is not the case: genetic variants that affect the progression, or prognosis, of a disease operate independently of those that increase the likelihood of developing the disease in the first place.

“Genetic studies have been very successful at identifying genetic risk factors for Crohn’s disease, but have told us virtually nothing about why one person will get only mild disease while someone else might need surgery to treat their condition,” says Dr James Lee from the Department of Medicine at Cambridge. “We do know, though, that family members who have the disease often tend to see it progress in a similar way. This suggested to us that genetics was likely to be involved in prognosis.”

The researchers looked at the genomes – the entire genetic makeup – of more than 2,700 individuals, who were selected because they had either had experienced particularly mild or particularly aggressive Crohn’s disease. By comparing these patients’ DNA, the researchers found four genetic variants that influenced the severity of a patient’s condition. Strikingly, none of these genes have been shown to affect the risk of developing the disease.

The team then looked at all the known genetic risk variants for Crohn’s and found that none of these influenced the severity of disease.

“This shows us that the genetic architecture of disease outcome is very different to that of disease risk,” adds Professor Ken Smith, Head of the Department of Medicine. “In other words, the biological pathways driving disease progression may be very different to those that initiate the disease itself. This was quite unexpected.  Past work has focussed on discovering genes underlying disease initiation, and our work suggests these may no longer be relevant by the time a patient sees the doctor. We may have to consider directing new therapies to quite different pathways in order to treat established disease”

One of the genetic variants discovered by the team was in a gene called FOXO3. This gene is involved in modulating the release of the cytokine TNFα – cytokines are proteins released into the blood by immune cells in response to infection or, in the case of conditions such as Crohn’s, to the body erroneously attacking itself. This FOXO3-TNFα pathway is also known to affect the severity of rheumatoid arthritis, another auto-inflammatory disease.

Another of the variants was close to the gene IGFBP1, which is known to play a role in the immune system. This genetic region, too, has previously been linked to rheumatoid arthritis, in a study looking at the presence of a particular antibody in patients – presence of this antibody is associated with more severe disease.

The third genetic variant was in the MHC region, which is responsible for determining how our immune cells respond to invading organisms. This region has been implicated in a number of auto-immune diseases, including Crohn’s, but the genetic variant that alters Crohn’s disease risk is different to the one that affects prognosis. The variant the team identified, which was associated with a milder course of Crohn’s disease, was shown to affect multiple genes in this region, and result in a state that is known to cause weaker immune responses.

The final variant occurred in the gene XACT, about which very little is known; however, in adults this gene appears to be mainly active in cells in the intestine – the organ affected by Crohn’s disease.

“This discovery has shown us a new way of looking at disease and opens up potential new treatment options, which could substantially ease the burden of Crohn’s disease,” says Dr Lee. “What’s more, we have evidence that some of these prognosis genes will be shared with other diseases, and as such this approach could be used to improve treatment in a number of conditions.”

The study has been welcomed by Crohn's and Colitis UK, who helped fund the study. "This is an exciting breakthrough which offers new hope for people who suffer every day from Crohn's and Colitis,” says Dr Wendy Edwards, Research Manager at Crohn’s and Colitis UK. “The research sheds new light on why some people with inflammatory bowel disease experience more severe symptoms than others, which has been little understood until now." 

As well as its implications for Crohn’s and other diseases, the approach taken by the researchers has suggested that there is value in re-examining previous genetic studies. Around a third of the genomes of Crohn’s disease patients analysed in this study had been collected for a previous study in 2007. By dividing the patients into groups categorised by disease severity, the researchers were able ask new questions – and gain new insights – from the old data.

The research was mainly funded by NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, Crohn’s and Colitis UK and the Evelyn Trust.

Reference
Lee, JC, Biasci, D, et al. Genome-wide association study identifies distinct genetic contributions to prognosis and susceptibility in Crohn's disease. Nature Genetics; 9 Jan 2017; DOI: 10.1038/ng.3755

Researchers have identified a series of genetic variants that affect the severity of Crohn’s disease, an inflammatory bowel disease – but surprisingly, none of these variants appear to be related to an individual’s risk of developing the condition in the first place.

Genetic studies have been very successful at identifying genetic risk factors for Crohn’s disease, but have told us virtually nothing about why one person will get only mild disease while someone else might need surgery to treat their condition
James Lee
DNA

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IMF lending conditions curb healthcare investment in West Africa, study finds

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A new study suggests that lending conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund in West Africa squeeze “fiscal space” in nations such as Sierra Leone – preventing government investment in health systems and, in some cases, contributing to an exodus of medical talent from countries that need it most.  

Researchers from the Universities of Cambridge, Oxford and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine analysed the IMF’s own primary documents to evaluate the relationship between IMF-mandated policy reforms – the conditions of loans – and government health spending in West African countries.

The team collected archival material, including IMF staff reports and government policy memoranda, to identify policy reforms in loan agreements between 1995 and 2014, extracting 8,344 reforms across 16 countries.

They found that for every additional IMF condition that is ‘binding’ – i.e. failure to implement means automatic loan suspension – government health expenditure per capita in the region is reduced by around 0.25%.

A typical IMF programme contains 25 such reforms per year, amounting to a 6.2% reduction in health spending for the average West African country annually.

The researchers say that this is often the result of a policy focus on budget deficit reduction over healthcare, or the funnelling of finance back into international reserves – all macroeconomic targets set by IMF conditions.

The authors of the new study, published in the journal Social Science and Medicine, say their findings show that the IMF “impedes progress toward the attainment of universal health coverage”, and that – under direct IMF tutelage – West African countries underfunded their health systems.

“The IMF proclaims it strengthens health systems as part of its lending programs,” said lead author Thomas Stubbs, from Cambridge’s Department of Sociology, who conducted the study with Prof Lawrence King. “Yet, inappropriate policy design in IMF programmes has impeded the development of public health systems in the region over the past two decades.”

A growing number of IMF loans to West Africa now include social spending targets to ensure that spending on health, education and other priorities are protected. These are not binding, however, and the study found that fewer than half are actually met.

“Stringent IMF-mandated austerity measures explain part of this trend,” said Stubbs. “As countries engage in fiscal belt-tightening to meet the IMF’s macroeconomic targets, few funds are left for maintaining health spending at adequate levels.”

The study also shows that the 16 West African countries experienced a combined total of 211 years with IMF conditions between 1995 and 2014. Some 45% of these included conditions stipulating layoffs or caps on public-sector recruitment and limits to the wage bill.

The researchers uncovered correspondence from national governments to the IMF arguing that imposed conditions are hindering recruitment of healthcare staff, something they found was often borne out by World Health Organisation (WHO) data. For example:

  • In 2004, Cabo Verde told the IMF that meeting their fiscal targets would interrupt recruitment of new doctors. The country later reported to the WHO a 48% reduction in physician numbers between 2004 and 2006.
  • In 2005, a series of IMF conditions aimed to reduce Ghana’s public sector wage bill. The Ghanaian Minister of Finance wrote to the IMF that “at the current level of remuneration, the civil service is losing highly productive employees, particularly in the health sector”. Wage ceilings remained until late-2006, and the number of physicians in Ghana halved.

“IMF-supported reforms have stopped many African countries hiring, retaining or paying healthcare staff properly,” said co-author Alexander Kentikelenis, based at the University of Oxford.

“Macroeconomic targets set by the IMF – for example, on budget deficit reduction – crowd out health concerns, so governments do not adequately invest in health.”

The IMF’s extended presence in West Africa – on average 13 out of 20 years per country – has caused considerable controversy among public health practitioners, say the researchers.

“While critics stress inappropriate or dogmatic policy design that undermines health system development, the IMF has argued its reforms bolster health policy,” said Stubbs.

“We show that the IMF has undermined health systems – a legacy of neglect that affects West Africa’s progress towards achieving universal health coverage, a key objective of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals.”

Research shows budget reduction targets and public sector caps, insisted on by the IMF as loan conditions, result in reduced health spending and medical ‘brain drain’ in developing West African nations.

We show that the IMF has undermined health systems – a legacy of neglect that affects West Africa’s progress towards achieving universal health coverage
Thomas Stubbs
Sierra Leonean Junior Doctor, Marina Kamara, follows up on a suspected kidney infection.

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Graduate, get a job … make a difference #2

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Charlotte Dixon working in Sierra Leone
Charlotte Dixon (Churchill), BA (2014) Modern and Medieval Languages
 
Since graduating I’ve been working with the Department for International Development (DFID). I started on the one year Graduate Scheme, working in London, but in 2015 I went to Sierra Leone as part of the Ebola crisis response. My current role is Policy and Programme Manager at DFID Ethiopia.
 
I've only been in Ethiopia for four months, but I’m really enjoying it so far. Day-to-day life can be challenging at times but it’s definitely worth it. No day is ever the same, so I never know quite what to expect when I head to work in the morning. When I arrived, the security situation here was quite unstable, so I haven't been able to see much of the country yet, but travel restrictions have just been lifted so I’m looking forward to being able to explore a bit more.
 
What Cambridge did for me
 
I first heard about the DFID Graduate Scheme through the Cambridge Careers Service. After going along to a talk they had organised with alumni already working for DFID, I knew it was the career for me.
 
Studying at Cambridge has helped me because it teaches you how to think on your feet and work under pressure. I studied French, Spanish and a bit of Portuguese. I don’t use them in my day-to-day job, but the fact that I have studied languages in the past has definitely helped me to pick up Amharic (the official language of Ethiopia). There are quite a lot of opportunities to use languages in international development - I hope to work in a French-speaking part of Africa in the future.
 
Outside of work, learning languages has definitely enriched my life, giving me a greater understanding of other cultures and, most importantly, giving me an excuse to travel to countries like Chile, Argentina, Colombia and Guatemala.
 
My motivation
 
I always knew that I didn’t want to pursue a conventional career in the corporate world - I wanted to do something that would make a difference. I also knew I wanted a career that would allow me to travel.
 
Applying to Cambridge
 
I was lucky that quite a few people I knew from my school were also applying to Cambridge, so it didn’t feel quite so daunting, but I still remember it being a long and stressful process. The college I went to, Churchill, had a really good mix of people which made it really easy to settle in.
 

Cambridge graduates enter a wide range of careers but making a difference tops their career wish lists. In this series, inspiring graduates from the last three years describe Cambridge, their current work and their determination to give back

Studying at Cambridge teaches you how to think on your feet and work under pressure
Charlotte Dixon
Charlotte Dixon working in Sierra Leone

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Opinion: Why is the norovirus such a huge problem for the NHS?

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Norovirus, also known as winter vomiting disease, is on the rise again according to a report in the BMJ. A familiar set of warnings about ward closures and avoiding visits to patients in hospital was also issued, but why does this one virus cause the NHS such difficulty?

While norovirus does occur year-round, there is a winter peak in cases that clashes with the winter rush on the NHS. The symptoms of norovirus – diarrhoea and vomiting – typically last a day or two. While you may spend those days wishing you were dead, the chances of long-term harm from the infection are extremely low if you are otherwise healthy. The people most at risk from norovirus are the very young, the elderly and people with impaired immune systems (those said to be immunocompromised). Unfortunately, these are exactly the groups most likely to find themselves in hospital.

As a result of advances in transplant medicine and cancer treatment that suppress or affect the immune system, these immunocompromised patients make up an increasingly large portion of the population. While norovirus only lasts a few days at most in healthy people, those who are immunocompromised can struggle to clear the infection; it can linger for weeks, months or even years. Fortunately, it is rare that full-blown norovirus symptoms are experienced for this long. It does make it hard to absorb food and gain weight, which is a worry after major surgery and can make recovery much more difficult. As such these patients are a particular concern.

It is very easy to pass on the norovirus. One tablespoon of diarrhoea from a single patient can contain enough infectious virus to infect everyone in the world many times over. To make things worse, like many other viruses, people may remain infectious for several days after symptoms have resolved and not every infected person may even be symptomatic. Many cases are traced back to food handlers who may appear well and have no idea they are infectious. The virus can be spread through touching infected surfaces or material and a lack of suitable handwashing or hygiene before.

Outbreaks tend to occur in closed environments such as hospitals, cruise ships, schools and retirement homes, as these all share common dining and social areas and have many people eating food prepared by others. In the case of hospitals, many of these have a food court or canteen which is shared by staff, patients and visitors. In summer, many escape outdoors on lunch breaks to enjoy the weather. But in winter when norovirus peaks, everyone crowds together inside, away from the cold.

An expensive virus

Hospital staff are at an increased risk of catching norovirus themselves as they deal with large numbers of patients. This is not only unpleasant for the individuals concerned, but also means it’s possible for asymptomatic staff to spread the virus to patients and so exacerbate the problem. For this reason hospitals are very careful about decontamination, staff training, and discouraging ill staff from working for up to 48 hours after symptoms have resolved.

For an organisation which runs 24/7, and relies on a great deal of shift work, this can be very disruptive. All these disruptions come at a cost – lost hospital beds and closed wards, at a time when beds are already at a premium. In the two weeks before Christmas 2016, there were 15 hospital outbreaks of norovirus in the UK, 14 of which resulted in closed wards or restrictions on patient admissions. Past estimates of the costs of norovirus to the NHS put the total at over £100m (in 2002-03 prices). This is the same as employing over 3,000 extra specialist nurses, or around a third of the total cancer drugs budget.

The cost to the global economy of norovirus has been estimated at a whopping US$44 billion, with US$4.2 billion of that to healthcare systems. At a time when NHS budgets are stretched, and hospitals are in debt, these additional costs are ones that hospitals can ill afford. With other seasonal and highly contagious diseases such as influenza, the NHS is able to offer and encourage its staff to take up free vaccinations in order to try and reduce the impact on staff, patient and visitor health. However, the absence of a vaccine means this is not yet an option for norovirus.

Vaccine trials are underway

While no drugs or vaccines are available, several vaccine candidates are in clinical trials. Sadly, immunity to norovirus does not last for long so, much like the flu vaccine, it is expected that regular vaccinations would be needed to make sure you remain immune. This would still be a huge benefit, and allow vaccination of workers at particular risk, or most likely to transmit the virus, such as NHS staff or those in the catering industry. The recent discovery of a means of growing different human norovirus strains in the lab, rather than having to rely on related animal viruses for research, will also boost efforts to find antivirals to help treat infection.

If you have norovirus, there is little your GP or hospital can do for you. The most a visit in person is likely to achieve is to spread the virus to other people. The NHS recommends that you stay at home, drink lots of water and, if you are concerned, phone your GP or NHS 111 for further advice.

The Conversation

Edward Emmott, Research Associate in Virology, University of Cambridge

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Writing for The Conversation, Edward Emmott, Research Associate in Virology explores why this notorious virus can cause the NHS such difficulty.

Norovirus

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